**Forecasts from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) and international models converge on a minimum temperature of 26°C for Lucknow on September 15, 2026, supporting the 90% market-implied probability for that exact outcome.** High humidity near 80–90% combined with scattered thunderstorms and cloud cover from lingering monsoon moisture is limiting overnight radiative cooling, keeping lows from dropping further. This aligns with typical mid-September climatology in the region, where post-monsoon nights usually bottom out in the mid-20s°C before the southwest monsoon fully withdraws around September 19. Recent observations show overnight lows of 25–26°C across nearby Uttar Pradesh stations, with no significant cool-air intrusion or clear-sky conditions expected to push temperatures lower. The modest probabilities assigned to 21°C or below (9.5%) reflect the low likelihood of atypical cooling, while higher values like 27°C or above carry negligible odds given the persistent moisture and stable steering patterns. Traders are weighting the consensus forecast and historical analogs heavily as resolution approaches.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateLowest temperature in Lucknow on September 15?
Lowest temperature in Lucknow on September 15?
26°C 99%
21°C or below 19%
22°C 16%
25°C 3%
$1,111 Vol.
$1,111 Vol.
Sep 15, 2026
21°C or below
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
Yes
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C or higher
No
26°C 99%
21°C or below 19%
22°C 16%
25°C 3%
$1,111 Vol.
$1,111 Vol.
Sep 15, 2026
21°C or below
$10 Vol.
No
22°C
$10 Vol.
No
23°C
$156 Vol.
No
24°C
$105 Vol.
No
25°C
$80 Vol.
No
26°C
$69 Vol.
Yes
27°C
$422 Vol.
No
28°C
$200 Vol.
No
29°C
$16 Vol.
No
30°C
$16 Vol.
No
31°C or higher
$26 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=vilk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecasts from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) and international models converge on a minimum temperature of 26°C for Lucknow on September 15, 2026, supporting the 90% market-implied probability for that exact outcome.**
High humidity near 80–90% combined with scattered thunderstorms and cloud cover from lingering monsoon moisture is limiting overnight radiative cooling, keeping lows from dropping further. This aligns with typical mid-September climatology in the region, where post-monsoon nights usually bottom out in the mid-20s°C before the southwest monsoon fully withdraws around September 19. Recent observations show overnight lows of 25–26°C across nearby Uttar Pradesh stations, with no significant cool-air intrusion or clear-sky conditions expected to push temperatures lower. The modest probabilities assigned to 21°C or below (9.5%) reflect the low likelihood of atypical cooling, while higher values like 27°C or above carry negligible odds given the persistent moisture and stable steering patterns. Traders are weighting the consensus forecast and historical analogs heavily as resolution approaches.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=vilk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=vilk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Binuksan ang Market: Sep 13, 2026, 1:30 PM ET
Volume
$1,111Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Sep 15, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Sep 13, 2026, 1:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=vilkResolver
0x69c47De9D...Na-propose ang outcome: No
Walang dispute
Pinal na outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=vilk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecasts from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) and international models converge on a minimum temperature of 26°C for Lucknow on September 15, 2026, supporting the 90% market-implied probability for that exact outcome.**
High humidity near 80–90% combined with scattered thunderstorms and cloud cover from lingering monsoon moisture is limiting overnight radiative cooling, keeping lows from dropping further. This aligns with typical mid-September climatology in the region, where post-monsoon nights usually bottom out in the mid-20s°C before the southwest monsoon fully withdraws around September 19. Recent observations show overnight lows of 25–26°C across nearby Uttar Pradesh stations, with no significant cool-air intrusion or clear-sky conditions expected to push temperatures lower. The modest probabilities assigned to 21°C or below (9.5%) reflect the low likelihood of atypical cooling, while higher values like 27°C or above carry negligible odds given the persistent moisture and stable steering patterns. Traders are weighting the consensus forecast and historical analogs heavily as resolution approaches.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=vilk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=vilk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,111Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Sep 15, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Sep 13, 2026, 1:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=vilkResolver
0x69c47De9D...Na-propose ang outcome: No
Walang dispute
Pinal na outcome: No
**Forecasts from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) and international models converge on a minimum temperature of 26°C for Lucknow on September 15, 2026, supporting the 90% market-implied probability for that exact outcome.** High humidity near 80–90% combined with scattered thunderstorms and cloud cover from lingering monsoon moisture is limiting overnight radiative cooling, keeping lows from dropping further. This aligns with typical mid-September climatology in the region, where post-monsoon nights usually bottom out in the mid-20s°C before the southwest monsoon fully withdraws around September 19. Recent observations show overnight lows of 25–26°C across nearby Uttar Pradesh stations, with no significant cool-air intrusion or clear-sky conditions expected to push temperatures lower. The modest probabilities assigned to 21°C or below (9.5%) reflect the low likelihood of atypical cooling, while higher values like 27°C or above carry negligible odds given the persistent moisture and stable steering patterns. Traders are weighting the consensus forecast and historical analogs heavily as resolution approaches.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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