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Measles cases in U.S. by June 30?

icon for Measles cases in U.S. by June 30?

Measles cases in U.S. by June 30?

Jun 30

Dec 31

Jun 30

Dec 31

$40,226 Vol.

Jun 30, 2026
Polymarket

$40,226 Vol.

Polymarket

2150

$15,092 Vol.

61%

2200

$16,156 Vol.

13%

2300

$4,395 Vol.

3%

2400

$4,583 Vol.

2%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026, according to the CDC case counter by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter 'Total Cases' in 2026 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.**Sustained local transmission from multiple overlapping outbreaks, driven by low MMR vaccination coverage in affected communities, is the main factor shaping trader views on U.S. measles cases by June 30.** As of June 11, the CDC reported 2,073 confirmed 2026 cases across 38 states and D.C., with 93% outbreak-associated and the large majority occurring in unvaccinated or unknown-status individuals. Recent weekly increments have averaged roughly 40–50 cases, reflecting carryover from 2025 chains rather than new importations. With the 2025 full-year total at 2,288, the remaining 19 days will depend on whether new reports from active clusters push the cumulative figure past key thresholds before the June 30 cutoff. CDC surveillance updates and state health department releases through late June represent the primary near-term data points that could shift market-implied odds.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026, according to the CDC case counter by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter 'Total Cases' in 2026 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used.

Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.
Volume
$40,226
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jun 30, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
May 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026, according to the CDC case counter by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter 'Total Cases' in 2026 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026, according to the CDC case counter by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter 'Total Cases' in 2026 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.**Sustained local transmission from multiple overlapping outbreaks, driven by low MMR vaccination coverage in affected communities, is the main factor shaping trader views on U.S. measles cases by June 30.** As of June 11, the CDC reported 2,073 confirmed 2026 cases across 38 states and D.C., with 93% outbreak-associated and the large majority occurring in unvaccinated or unknown-status individuals. Recent weekly increments have averaged roughly 40–50 cases, reflecting carryover from 2025 chains rather than new importations. With the 2025 full-year total at 2,288, the remaining 19 days will depend on whether new reports from active clusters push the cumulative figure past key thresholds before the June 30 cutoff. CDC surveillance updates and state health department releases through late June represent the primary near-term data points that could shift market-implied odds.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026, according to the CDC case counter by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter 'Total Cases' in 2026 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used.

Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.
Volume
$40,226
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jun 30, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
May 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026, according to the CDC case counter by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter 'Total Cases' in 2026 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.

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Mga Madalas na Tanong

Ang "Measles cases in U.S. by June 30?" ay isang prediction market sa Polymarket na may 4 posibleng outcomes kung saan bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares batay sa kanilang pinaniniwalaan na mangyayari. Ang kasalukuyang nangunguna ay "2150" sa 61%, sinusundan ng "2200" sa 13%. Ang mga presyo ay sumasalamin sa real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. Halimbawa, ang isang share na naka-presyo sa 61¢ ay nagpapahiwatig na kolektibong itinatakda ng market ang 61% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Patuloy na nagbabago ang mga odds na ito habang tumutugon ang mga trader sa mga bagong development at impormasyon. Ang mga shares sa tamang outcome ay mare-redeem sa $1 bawat isa sa market resolution.

Sa ngayon, ang "Measles cases in U.S. by June 30?" ay naka-generate ng $40.2K sa kabuuang trading volume mula nang ilunsad ang market noong May 26, 2026. Ang antas na ito ng trading activity ay sumasalamin sa malakas na engagement mula sa Polymarket community at tumutulong na matiyak na ang kasalukuyang odds ay sinusuportahan ng malawak na pool ng mga market participant. Maaari mong subaybayan ang live price movements at mag-trade sa anumang outcome nang direkta sa pahinang ito.

Para mag-trade sa "Measles cases in U.S. by June 30?," i-browse ang 4 available na outcomes na nakalista sa pahinang ito. Ang bawat outcome ay may kasalukuyang presyo na kumakatawan sa implied probability ng market. Para kumuha ng posisyon, piliin ang outcome na pinaniniwalaan mong pinaka-malamang, piliin ang "Yes" para mag-trade pabor dito o "No" para mag-trade laban dito, ilagay ang iyong halaga, at i-click ang "Trade." Kung tama ang iyong napiling outcome kapag na-resolve ang market, nagbabayad ang iyong "Yes" shares ng $1 bawat isa. Kung mali, nagbabayad ang mga ito ng $0. Maaari ka ring magbenta ng iyong shares anumang oras bago ang resolution kung gusto mong i-lock in ang kita o bawasan ang pagkalugi.

Ang kasalukuyang frontrunner para sa "Measles cases in U.S. by June 30?" ay "2150" sa 61%, ibig sabihin itinatakda ng market ang 61% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Ang sumunod na pinaka-malapit na outcome ay "2200" sa 13%. Nag-a-update ang mga odds na ito sa real-time habang bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares, kaya sinasalamin nila ang pinakabagong kolektibong view kung ano ang pinaka-malamang na mangyari. Bumalik nang madalas o i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para sundan kung paano nagbabago ang odds habang lumilitaw ang bagong impormasyon.

Ang mga resolution rules para sa "Measles cases in U.S. by June 30?" ay tiyak na nagde-define kung ano ang kailangang mangyari para sa bawat outcome na maideklara bilang panalo — kasama ang mga opisyal na data source na ginagamit para matukoy ang resulta. Maaari mong i-review ang kumpletong resolution criteria sa "Rules" section sa pahinang ito sa itaas ng mga komento. Inirerekomenda namin na basahin nang mabuti ang mga patakaran bago mag-trade, dahil tinutukoy nila ang mga tiyak na kondisyon, edge cases, at mga source na namamahala kung paano nise-settle ang market na ito.