Trader consensus prices a 60% implied probability against former Rep. Tony Gonzales facing criminal charges by June 30, reflecting the closure of the House Ethics Committee's investigation into his alleged sexual misconduct with congressional staffers. Gonzales resigned on April 14 amid the probe—sparked by his admitted affair with a staffer who died by self-immolation and explicit texts to a second aide—prompting the bipartisan panel to end proceedings on April 20 without public findings or referrals to the DOJ. No federal indictments, FBI probes, or prosecutorial actions have emerged in the six weeks since, underscoring the internal congressional nature of the matter over criminal liability.