**Seven Republican senators have announced they will not seek re-election in 2026, aligning with the market's strong consensus at 77% for that outcome.** Ballotpedia and Wikipedia reporting as of July–August 2026 confirm exactly seven Republicans among the eleven total Senate incumbents not running, including figures such as Mitch McConnell (KY), Joni Ernst (IA), Thom Tillis (NC), Steve Daines (MT), Cynthia Lummis (WY), Alan Armstrong (OK), and Tommy Tuberville (AL). These decisions accumulated across 2025 and early 2026, driven by factors including age, primary pressures, and shifts toward other offices or retirement. With filing deadlines approaching for the November 2026 elections and no additional Republican announcements reported in recent weeks, traders appear to view seven as the likely final count, reflected in the steep pricing on that bucket versus lower probabilities for higher totals like 11.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update7 77%
11 9.8%
9 4.7%
5 3.4%
$101,009 Vol.
$101,009 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<5
1%
5
3%
6
1%
7
77%
8
1%
9
5%
10
2%
11
10%
12+
1%
7 77%
11 9.8%
9 4.7%
5 3.4%
$101,009 Vol.
$101,009 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<5
$22,734 Vol.
1%
5
$17,485 Vol.
3%
6
$27,247 Vol.
1%
7
$16,967 Vol.
77%
8
$4,602 Vol.
1%
9
$2,208 Vol.
5%
10
$1,839 Vol.
2%
11
$2,845 Vol.
10%
12+
$5,082 Vol.
1%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Seven Republican senators have announced they will not seek re-election in 2026, aligning with the market's strong consensus at 77% for that outcome.**
Ballotpedia and Wikipedia reporting as of July–August 2026 confirm exactly seven Republicans among the eleven total Senate incumbents not running, including figures such as Mitch McConnell (KY), Joni Ernst (IA), Thom Tillis (NC), Steve Daines (MT), Cynthia Lummis (WY), Alan Armstrong (OK), and Tommy Tuberville (AL). These decisions accumulated across 2025 and early 2026, driven by factors including age, primary pressures, and shifts toward other offices or retirement. With filing deadlines approaching for the November 2026 elections and no additional Republican announcements reported in recent weeks, traders appear to view seven as the likely final count, reflected in the steep pricing on that bucket versus lower probabilities for higher totals like 11.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Binuksan ang Market: Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
Volume
$101,009Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Aug 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Seven Republican senators have announced they will not seek re-election in 2026, aligning with the market's strong consensus at 77% for that outcome.**
Ballotpedia and Wikipedia reporting as of July–August 2026 confirm exactly seven Republicans among the eleven total Senate incumbents not running, including figures such as Mitch McConnell (KY), Joni Ernst (IA), Thom Tillis (NC), Steve Daines (MT), Cynthia Lummis (WY), Alan Armstrong (OK), and Tommy Tuberville (AL). These decisions accumulated across 2025 and early 2026, driven by factors including age, primary pressures, and shifts toward other offices or retirement. With filing deadlines approaching for the November 2026 elections and no additional Republican announcements reported in recent weeks, traders appear to view seven as the likely final count, reflected in the steep pricing on that bucket versus lower probabilities for higher totals like 11.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$101,009Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Aug 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Seven Republican senators have announced they will not seek re-election in 2026, aligning with the market's strong consensus at 77% for that outcome.** Ballotpedia and Wikipedia reporting as of July–August 2026 confirm exactly seven Republicans among the eleven total Senate incumbents not running, including figures such as Mitch McConnell (KY), Joni Ernst (IA), Thom Tillis (NC), Steve Daines (MT), Cynthia Lummis (WY), Alan Armstrong (OK), and Tommy Tuberville (AL). These decisions accumulated across 2025 and early 2026, driven by factors including age, primary pressures, and shifts toward other offices or retirement. With filing deadlines approaching for the November 2026 elections and no additional Republican announcements reported in recent weeks, traders appear to view seven as the likely final count, reflected in the steep pricing on that bucket versus lower probabilities for higher totals like 11.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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