Recent announcements of Democratic retirements, including long-serving members such as Nancy Pelosi and Steny Hoyer, have established a baseline near 20 incumbents not seeking re-election. Traders assign the highest probability to the 32–35 range because filing deadlines remain months away, creating room for additional exits driven by age, institutional fatigue, or bids for Senate seats in states like Illinois and New Hampshire. Historical midterm patterns and the current pace of departures suggest further announcements could consolidate support in that interval, while slower movement toward higher bins like 40+ would require an acceleration of retirements or unexpected primary challenges before the November 2026 general election.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update32–35 32.0%
28–31 20%
24–27 19%
20–23 13.5%
$31,654 Vol.
$31,654 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<20
3%
20–23
13%
24–27
19%
28–31
20%
32–35
32%
36–39
3%
40+
17%
32–35 32.0%
28–31 20%
24–27 19%
20–23 13.5%
$31,654 Vol.
$31,654 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<20
$16,991 Vol.
3%
20–23
$5,250 Vol.
13%
24–27
$4,156 Vol.
19%
28–31
$1,174 Vol.
20%
32–35
$3,574 Vol.
32%
36–39
$508 Vol.
3%
40+
$0 Vol.
17%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent announcements of Democratic retirements, including long-serving members such as Nancy Pelosi and Steny Hoyer, have established a baseline near 20 incumbents not seeking re-election. Traders assign the highest probability to the 32–35 range because filing deadlines remain months away, creating room for additional exits driven by age, institutional fatigue, or bids for Senate seats in states like Illinois and New Hampshire. Historical midterm patterns and the current pace of departures suggest further announcements could consolidate support in that interval, while slower movement toward higher bins like 40+ would require an acceleration of retirements or unexpected primary challenges before the November 2026 general election.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Binuksan ang Market: Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ET
Volume
$31,654Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Aug 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent announcements of Democratic retirements, including long-serving members such as Nancy Pelosi and Steny Hoyer, have established a baseline near 20 incumbents not seeking re-election. Traders assign the highest probability to the 32–35 range because filing deadlines remain months away, creating room for additional exits driven by age, institutional fatigue, or bids for Senate seats in states like Illinois and New Hampshire. Historical midterm patterns and the current pace of departures suggest further announcements could consolidate support in that interval, while slower movement toward higher bins like 40+ would require an acceleration of retirements or unexpected primary challenges before the November 2026 general election.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$31,654Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Aug 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent announcements of Democratic retirements, including long-serving members such as Nancy Pelosi and Steny Hoyer, have established a baseline near 20 incumbents not seeking re-election. Traders assign the highest probability to the 32–35 range because filing deadlines remain months away, creating room for additional exits driven by age, institutional fatigue, or bids for Senate seats in states like Illinois and New Hampshire. Historical midterm patterns and the current pace of departures suggest further announcements could consolidate support in that interval, while slower movement toward higher bins like 40+ would require an acceleration of retirements or unexpected primary challenges before the November 2026 general election.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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