Persistent geopolitical tensions from the 2026 Iran conflict, including vessel attacks, elevated war-risk insurance premiums (15–40× peacetime levels), mines, and dual transit regimes, continue to suppress normal commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Visible AIS transits remain at roughly 5% of the pre-crisis ~85 vessels per day as of late September, even as Kpler data show crude flows nearing prewar levels via dark transits, ship-to-ship transfers, and naval escorts; refined products lag significantly. Recent ceasefire proposals and Iranian commitments to facilitate reopening within 30 days have not yet resolved security or permitting barriers, sustaining trader consensus—reflected in the 80.5% implied probability of no return to normal in 2026—that full, unrestricted operations face substantial hurdles into year-end.