NOAA’s August 2026 update lowered the Atlantic hurricane outlook to 7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes, and 0–2 major hurricanes (Category 3+ on the Saffir-Simpson scale) for the full June–November season, citing a pronounced lull in activity near peak months. With only three named storms formed to date and none yet reaching hurricane strength, current steering patterns and atmospheric conditions appear unfavorable for rapid intensification into Category 4 systems (130+ mph sustained winds). Historical return periods show U.S. Category 4+ landfalls occur infrequently even in average seasons, and the compressed remaining window through November further reduces odds. Updated model runs and monitoring agency briefings through late August will provide the next key data points for traders assessing any late-season surge.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateWill any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
16% tsansa
$340,136 Vol.
$340,136 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
16% tsansa
$340,136 Vol.
$340,136 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.NOAA’s August 2026 update lowered the Atlantic hurricane outlook to 7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes, and 0–2 major hurricanes (Category 3+ on the Saffir-Simpson scale) for the full June–November season, citing a pronounced lull in activity near peak months. With only three named storms formed to date and none yet reaching hurricane strength, current steering patterns and atmospheric conditions appear unfavorable for rapid intensification into Category 4 systems (130+ mph sustained winds). Historical return periods show U.S. Category 4+ landfalls occur infrequently even in average seasons, and the compressed remaining window through November further reduces odds. Updated model runs and monitoring agency briefings through late August will provide the next key data points for traders assessing any late-season surge.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Binuksan ang Market: Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
Volume
$340,136Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.NOAA’s August 2026 update lowered the Atlantic hurricane outlook to 7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes, and 0–2 major hurricanes (Category 3+ on the Saffir-Simpson scale) for the full June–November season, citing a pronounced lull in activity near peak months. With only three named storms formed to date and none yet reaching hurricane strength, current steering patterns and atmospheric conditions appear unfavorable for rapid intensification into Category 4 systems (130+ mph sustained winds). Historical return periods show U.S. Category 4+ landfalls occur infrequently even in average seasons, and the compressed remaining window through November further reduces odds. Updated model runs and monitoring agency briefings through late August will provide the next key data points for traders assessing any late-season surge.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Volume
$340,136Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NOAA’s August 2026 update lowered the Atlantic hurricane outlook to 7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes, and 0–2 major hurricanes (Category 3+ on the Saffir-Simpson scale) for the full June–November season, citing a pronounced lull in activity near peak months. With only three named storms formed to date and none yet reaching hurricane strength, current steering patterns and atmospheric conditions appear unfavorable for rapid intensification into Category 4 systems (130+ mph sustained winds). Historical return periods show U.S. Category 4+ landfalls occur infrequently even in average seasons, and the compressed remaining window through November further reduces odds. Updated model runs and monitoring agency briefings through late August will provide the next key data points for traders assessing any late-season surge.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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