Recent observational data from early August 2026 confirm that the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd ranked among the warmest calendar dates on record globally and in the Northern Hemisphere, driven by a strong El Niño event amplifying background anthropogenic warming. Surface air temperatures reached record anomalies, including a Northern Hemisphere daily peak around 22.4°C on August 1, consistent with NOAA, Copernicus, and Berkeley Earth analyses showing July 2026 tying prior hottest months and early August heat domes breaking numerous station records across North America, Europe, and Asia. Trader consensus at 96.5% for the top ranking reflects this verified model agreement and preliminary reanalysis data. Revisions in final datasets, regional weighting differences, or unexpected cooling from volcanic aerosols or La Niña onset could narrow the margin, though current evidence makes such shifts unlikely before resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено2026 August 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
2026 August 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
1st hottest 96.8%
2nd hottest 3.1%
3rd hottest 2.2%
4th or lower 1.0%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 31, 2026
1st hottest
97%
2nd hottest
3%
3rd hottest
2%
4th or lower
1%
1st hottest 96.8%
2nd hottest 3.1%
3rd hottest 2.2%
4th or lower 1.0%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 31, 2026
1st hottest
$510 Обс.
97%
2nd hottest
$334 Обс.
3%
3rd hottest
$152 Обс.
2%
4th or lower
$151 Обс.
1%
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Recent observational data from early August 2026 confirm that the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd ranked among the warmest calendar dates on record globally and in the Northern Hemisphere, driven by a strong El Niño event amplifying background anthropogenic warming. Surface air temperatures reached record anomalies, including a Northern Hemisphere daily peak around 22.4°C on August 1, consistent with NOAA, Copernicus, and Berkeley Earth analyses showing July 2026 tying prior hottest months and early August heat domes breaking numerous station records across North America, Europe, and Asia. Trader consensus at 96.5% for the top ranking reflects this verified model agreement and preliminary reanalysis data. Revisions in final datasets, regional weighting differences, or unexpected cooling from volcanic aerosols or La Niña onset could narrow the margin, though current evidence makes such shifts unlikely before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Ринок відкрито: Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ET
Обсяг
$1,147Дата завершення
Sep 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Recent observational data from early August 2026 confirm that the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd ranked among the warmest calendar dates on record globally and in the Northern Hemisphere, driven by a strong El Niño event amplifying background anthropogenic warming. Surface air temperatures reached record anomalies, including a Northern Hemisphere daily peak around 22.4°C on August 1, consistent with NOAA, Copernicus, and Berkeley Earth analyses showing July 2026 tying prior hottest months and early August heat domes breaking numerous station records across North America, Europe, and Asia. Trader consensus at 96.5% for the top ranking reflects this verified model agreement and preliminary reanalysis data. Revisions in final datasets, regional weighting differences, or unexpected cooling from volcanic aerosols or La Niña onset could narrow the margin, though current evidence makes such shifts unlikely before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Обсяг
$1,147Дата завершення
Sep 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent observational data from early August 2026 confirm that the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd ranked among the warmest calendar dates on record globally and in the Northern Hemisphere, driven by a strong El Niño event amplifying background anthropogenic warming. Surface air temperatures reached record anomalies, including a Northern Hemisphere daily peak around 22.4°C on August 1, consistent with NOAA, Copernicus, and Berkeley Earth analyses showing July 2026 tying prior hottest months and early August heat domes breaking numerous station records across North America, Europe, and Asia. Trader consensus at 96.5% for the top ranking reflects this verified model agreement and preliminary reanalysis data. Revisions in final datasets, regional weighting differences, or unexpected cooling from volcanic aerosols or La Niña onset could narrow the margin, though current evidence makes such shifts unlikely before resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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