Recent floor crossings by Conservative MPs to Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberal caucus have shifted the balance in the minority Parliament, with five such moves recorded since late 2025. The latest, Ontario MP Marilyn Gladu’s switch on April 8, 2026, left the Liberals one seat short of a majority. Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre has publicly criticized the defections as undermining voter mandates, while analysts note ongoing internal party tensions and policy disagreements that may encourage further shifts. Speculation persists around additional members facing re-election pressures or seeking committee roles and government resources. With a possible federal election timeline approaching and no immediate legislative session changes confirmed, traders are monitoring caucus stability and any new public statements from sitting MPs.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоНОВЕ
Jun 30, 2026
May 15
10%
May 31
16%
$581 Обс.
May 15
$148 Обс.
10%
May 31
$255 Обс.
16%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Canadian House of Commons changes parties by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Changes parties” refers to an MP ceasing to be a member of one political party’s parliamentary caucus and joining another political party’s parliamentary caucus. A transition from independent status into a party’s caucus, or from a party’s caucus to independent status will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent floor crossings by Conservative MPs to Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberal caucus have shifted the balance in the minority Parliament, with five such moves recorded since late 2025. The latest, Ontario MP Marilyn Gladu’s switch on April 8, 2026, left the Liberals one seat short of a majority. Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre has publicly criticized the defections as undermining voter mandates, while analysts note ongoing internal party tensions and policy disagreements that may encourage further shifts. Speculation persists around additional members facing re-election pressures or seeking committee roles and government resources. With a possible federal election timeline approaching and no immediate legislative session changes confirmed, traders are monitoring caucus stability and any new public statements from sitting MPs.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Canadian House of Commons changes parties by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Changes parties” refers to an MP ceasing to be a member of one political party’s parliamentary caucus and joining another political party’s parliamentary caucus. A transition from independent status into a party’s caucus, or from a party’s caucus to independent status will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
“Changes parties” refers to an MP ceasing to be a member of one political party’s parliamentary caucus and joining another political party’s parliamentary caucus. A transition from independent status into a party’s caucus, or from a party’s caucus to independent status will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Apr 16, 2026, 10:46 AM ET
Обсяг
$581Дата завершення
Jun 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 16, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Canadian House of Commons changes parties by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Changes parties” refers to an MP ceasing to be a member of one political party’s parliamentary caucus and joining another political party’s parliamentary caucus. A transition from independent status into a party’s caucus, or from a party’s caucus to independent status will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent floor crossings by Conservative MPs to Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberal caucus have shifted the balance in the minority Parliament, with five such moves recorded since late 2025. The latest, Ontario MP Marilyn Gladu’s switch on April 8, 2026, left the Liberals one seat short of a majority. Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre has publicly criticized the defections as undermining voter mandates, while analysts note ongoing internal party tensions and policy disagreements that may encourage further shifts. Speculation persists around additional members facing re-election pressures or seeking committee roles and government resources. With a possible federal election timeline approaching and no immediate legislative session changes confirmed, traders are monitoring caucus stability and any new public statements from sitting MPs.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Canadian House of Commons changes parties by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Changes parties” refers to an MP ceasing to be a member of one political party’s parliamentary caucus and joining another political party’s parliamentary caucus. A transition from independent status into a party’s caucus, or from a party’s caucus to independent status will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
“Changes parties” refers to an MP ceasing to be a member of one political party’s parliamentary caucus and joining another political party’s parliamentary caucus. A transition from independent status into a party’s caucus, or from a party’s caucus to independent status will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$581Дата завершення
Jun 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 16, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent floor crossings by Conservative MPs to Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberal caucus have shifted the balance in the minority Parliament, with five such moves recorded since late 2025. The latest, Ontario MP Marilyn Gladu’s switch on April 8, 2026, left the Liberals one seat short of a majority. Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre has publicly criticized the defections as undermining voter mandates, while analysts note ongoing internal party tensions and policy disagreements that may encourage further shifts. Speculation persists around additional members facing re-election pressures or seeking committee roles and government resources. With a possible federal election timeline approaching and no immediate legislative session changes confirmed, traders are monitoring caucus stability and any new public statements from sitting MPs.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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