A strengthening El Niño event, with Niño 3.4 anomalies reaching +2.0 to +2.7 °C in mid-August 2026 and forecasts for a very strong peak later in the year, is the dominant near-term driver elevating global temperatures above the long-term anthropogenic trend. Preliminary analyses from sources tracking ERA5 and ECMWF data indicate August 2026 on pace for an anomaly near or above 1.5 °C relative to 1850–1900, consistent with record sea surface temperatures and the lagged global response to Pacific warming. Trader consensus favoring the 1.38–1.41 °C bin reflects expectations that final blended observational datasets will settle in this range after accounting for natural variability and measurement adjustments, while lower-probability outcomes capture risks of cooler surprises from regional patterns or data revisions. Upcoming full-month releases from NOAA, NASA, and Berkeley Earth will provide key resolution signals.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоAugust 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC) (HIGHER STRIKES)
August 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC) (HIGHER STRIKES)
1.38–1.41ºC 74%
1.42–1.45ºC 16%
1.34–1.37ºC 3.3%
>1.45ºC 1.4%
$17,178 Обс.
$17,178 Обс.
Aug 31, 2026
<1.30ºC
<1%
1.30–1.33ºC
<1%
1.34–1.37ºC
3%
1.38–1.41ºC
74%
1.42–1.45ºC
16%
>1.45ºC
1%
1.38–1.41ºC 74%
1.42–1.45ºC 16%
1.34–1.37ºC 3.3%
>1.45ºC 1.4%
$17,178 Обс.
$17,178 Обс.
Aug 31, 2026
<1.30ºC
$657 Обс.
<1%
1.30–1.33ºC
$1,462 Обс.
<1%
1.34–1.37ºC
$2,737 Обс.
3%
1.38–1.41ºC
$3,523 Обс.
74%
1.42–1.45ºC
$7,521 Обс.
16%
>1.45ºC
$1,278 Обс.
1%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A strengthening El Niño event, with Niño 3.4 anomalies reaching +2.0 to +2.7 °C in mid-August 2026 and forecasts for a very strong peak later in the year, is the dominant near-term driver elevating global temperatures above the long-term anthropogenic trend. Preliminary analyses from sources tracking ERA5 and ECMWF data indicate August 2026 on pace for an anomaly near or above 1.5 °C relative to 1850–1900, consistent with record sea surface temperatures and the lagged global response to Pacific warming. Trader consensus favoring the 1.38–1.41 °C bin reflects expectations that final blended observational datasets will settle in this range after accounting for natural variability and measurement adjustments, while lower-probability outcomes capture risks of cooler surprises from regional patterns or data revisions. Upcoming full-month releases from NOAA, NASA, and Berkeley Earth will provide key resolution signals.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ET
Обсяг
$17,178Дата завершення
Sep 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A strengthening El Niño event, with Niño 3.4 anomalies reaching +2.0 to +2.7 °C in mid-August 2026 and forecasts for a very strong peak later in the year, is the dominant near-term driver elevating global temperatures above the long-term anthropogenic trend. Preliminary analyses from sources tracking ERA5 and ECMWF data indicate August 2026 on pace for an anomaly near or above 1.5 °C relative to 1850–1900, consistent with record sea surface temperatures and the lagged global response to Pacific warming. Trader consensus favoring the 1.38–1.41 °C bin reflects expectations that final blended observational datasets will settle in this range after accounting for natural variability and measurement adjustments, while lower-probability outcomes capture risks of cooler surprises from regional patterns or data revisions. Upcoming full-month releases from NOAA, NASA, and Berkeley Earth will provide key resolution signals.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Обсяг
$17,178Дата завершення
Sep 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...A strengthening El Niño event, with Niño 3.4 anomalies reaching +2.0 to +2.7 °C in mid-August 2026 and forecasts for a very strong peak later in the year, is the dominant near-term driver elevating global temperatures above the long-term anthropogenic trend. Preliminary analyses from sources tracking ERA5 and ECMWF data indicate August 2026 on pace for an anomaly near or above 1.5 °C relative to 1850–1900, consistent with record sea surface temperatures and the lagged global response to Pacific warming. Trader consensus favoring the 1.38–1.41 °C bin reflects expectations that final blended observational datasets will settle in this range after accounting for natural variability and measurement adjustments, while lower-probability outcomes capture risks of cooler surprises from regional patterns or data revisions. Upcoming full-month releases from NOAA, NASA, and Berkeley Earth will provide key resolution signals.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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