Brazil's Q2 2026 GDP growth (QoQ) market prices a 0.3%-0.5% outcome as most likely at 52.9% implied probability, reflecting consensus expectations for moderation after the 1.1% Q1 print that exceeded forecasts. Elevated inflation from the Iran energy shock has eroded real income gains that supported household consumption, while fixed investment is retreating from unsustainable Q1 levels, limiting domestic demand. The Central Bank's elevated policy rates continue to constrain activity amid stable labor market conditions. Traders are weighting the upcoming September 1 release heavily, with the 0.0%-0.2% and 0.6%-0.8% buckets capturing residual uncertainty around export momentum from soybean shipments and any last-minute data revisions. This pricing aligns with economist models projecting a return toward the long-term quarterly average near 0.3-0.5%.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено0.3%–0.5% 53.0%
0.0%–0.2% 23.1%
0.6%–0.8% 15.5%
0.9%–1.1% 1.1%
$45,124 Обс.
$45,124 Обс.
Sep 1, 2026
<0.0%
<1%
0.0%–0.2%
23%
0.3%–0.5%
53%
0.6%–0.8%
16%
0.9%–1.1%
10%
1.2%–1.4%
<1%
≥1.5%
<1%
0.3%–0.5% 53.0%
0.0%–0.2% 23.1%
0.6%–0.8% 15.5%
0.9%–1.1% 1.1%
$45,124 Обс.
$45,124 Обс.
Sep 1, 2026
<0.0%
$832 Обс.
<1%
0.0%–0.2%
$3,404 Обс.
23%
0.3%–0.5%
$16,479 Обс.
53%
0.6%–0.8%
$14,723 Обс.
16%
0.9%–1.1%
$6,075 Обс.
10%
1.2%–1.4%
$2,775 Обс.
<1%
≥1.5%
$836 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 2nd quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on September 1, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlBrazil's Q2 2026 GDP growth (QoQ) market prices a 0.3%-0.5% outcome as most likely at 52.9% implied probability, reflecting consensus expectations for moderation after the 1.1% Q1 print that exceeded forecasts. Elevated inflation from the Iran energy shock has eroded real income gains that supported household consumption, while fixed investment is retreating from unsustainable Q1 levels, limiting domestic demand. The Central Bank's elevated policy rates continue to constrain activity amid stable labor market conditions. Traders are weighting the upcoming September 1 release heavily, with the 0.0%-0.2% and 0.6%-0.8% buckets capturing residual uncertainty around export momentum from soybean shipments and any last-minute data revisions. This pricing aligns with economist models projecting a return toward the long-term quarterly average near 0.3-0.5%.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 2nd quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on September 1, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Ринок відкрито: Jun 3, 2026, 10:46 AM ET
Обсяг
$45,124Дата завершення
Sep 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jun 3, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 2nd quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on September 1, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlBrazil's Q2 2026 GDP growth (QoQ) market prices a 0.3%-0.5% outcome as most likely at 52.9% implied probability, reflecting consensus expectations for moderation after the 1.1% Q1 print that exceeded forecasts. Elevated inflation from the Iran energy shock has eroded real income gains that supported household consumption, while fixed investment is retreating from unsustainable Q1 levels, limiting domestic demand. The Central Bank's elevated policy rates continue to constrain activity amid stable labor market conditions. Traders are weighting the upcoming September 1 release heavily, with the 0.0%-0.2% and 0.6%-0.8% buckets capturing residual uncertainty around export momentum from soybean shipments and any last-minute data revisions. This pricing aligns with economist models projecting a return toward the long-term quarterly average near 0.3-0.5%.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 2nd quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on September 1, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Обсяг
$45,124Дата завершення
Sep 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jun 3, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Brazil's Q2 2026 GDP growth (QoQ) market prices a 0.3%-0.5% outcome as most likely at 52.9% implied probability, reflecting consensus expectations for moderation after the 1.1% Q1 print that exceeded forecasts. Elevated inflation from the Iran energy shock has eroded real income gains that supported household consumption, while fixed investment is retreating from unsustainable Q1 levels, limiting domestic demand. The Central Bank's elevated policy rates continue to constrain activity amid stable labor market conditions. Traders are weighting the upcoming September 1 release heavily, with the 0.0%-0.2% and 0.6%-0.8% buckets capturing residual uncertainty around export momentum from soybean shipments and any last-minute data revisions. This pricing aligns with economist models projecting a return toward the long-term quarterly average near 0.3-0.5%.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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