In California's 14th Congressional District special election, triggered by Rep. Eric Swalwell's April 2026 resignation amid sexual misconduct allegations, trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 92.5% due to the district's strong Democratic lean in the East Bay, evidenced by consistent landslide victories and heavy voter registration advantages. A crowded Democratic primary field on June 16—including state Sen. Aisha Wahab, BART Director Melissa Hernandez, and surging attorney Rakhi Israni Singh—contrasts with a weaker Republican slate led by retired tech executive Wendy Huang, making a top-two matchup likely between Democrats. While low GOP viability drives the odds, a Republican primary upset or scandal hitting frontrunners could shift dynamics before the August 18 runoff.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоCA-14 House Election Winner
CA-14 House Election Winner
$25,004 Обс.
$25,004 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
93%
Republican Party
7%
$25,004 Обс.
$25,004 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$7,920 Обс.
93%
Republican Party
$17,084 Обс.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).In California's 14th Congressional District special election, triggered by Rep. Eric Swalwell's April 2026 resignation amid sexual misconduct allegations, trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 92.5% due to the district's strong Democratic lean in the East Bay, evidenced by consistent landslide victories and heavy voter registration advantages. A crowded Democratic primary field on June 16—including state Sen. Aisha Wahab, BART Director Melissa Hernandez, and surging attorney Rakhi Israni Singh—contrasts with a weaker Republican slate led by retired tech executive Wendy Huang, making a top-two matchup likely between Democrats. While low GOP viability drives the odds, a Republican primary upset or scandal hitting frontrunners could shift dynamics before the August 18 runoff.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
Обсяг
$25,004Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).In California's 14th Congressional District special election, triggered by Rep. Eric Swalwell's April 2026 resignation amid sexual misconduct allegations, trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 92.5% due to the district's strong Democratic lean in the East Bay, evidenced by consistent landslide victories and heavy voter registration advantages. A crowded Democratic primary field on June 16—including state Sen. Aisha Wahab, BART Director Melissa Hernandez, and surging attorney Rakhi Israni Singh—contrasts with a weaker Republican slate led by retired tech executive Wendy Huang, making a top-two matchup likely between Democrats. While low GOP viability drives the odds, a Republican primary upset or scandal hitting frontrunners could shift dynamics before the August 18 runoff.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$25,004Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...In California's 14th Congressional District special election, triggered by Rep. Eric Swalwell's April 2026 resignation amid sexual misconduct allegations, trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 92.5% due to the district's strong Democratic lean in the East Bay, evidenced by consistent landslide victories and heavy voter registration advantages. A crowded Democratic primary field on June 16—including state Sen. Aisha Wahab, BART Director Melissa Hernandez, and surging attorney Rakhi Israni Singh—contrasts with a weaker Republican slate led by retired tech executive Wendy Huang, making a top-two matchup likely between Democrats. While low GOP viability drives the odds, a Republican primary upset or scandal hitting frontrunners could shift dynamics before the August 18 runoff.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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