Donald Trump’s established posting rhythm on Truth Social continues to shape trader expectations for the May 15–22 window. With daily output often exceeding twenty messages during active periods, market participants assign the highest probability to the 200+ bucket at 43 percent, followed closely by the 140–159 and 160–179 ranges. No major schedule changes, travel disruptions, or platform outages have altered this baseline in the past week, keeping volume projections anchored to recent patterns. Traders monitor upcoming public events and statements that typically trigger additional posts, while recognizing that any sustained slowdown could shift probability toward the mid-range outcomes now trading between 26 and 28 percent.