Elevated Eurozone inflation, projected at 3.0% for 2026 amid higher energy prices from the Middle East conflict, underpins the 91% market-implied probability against an ECB rate cut this year. Official Eurosystem staff projections and the Q3 Survey of Professional Forecasters show headline HICP expectations holding near 2.7%, with core measures revised higher, prompting a data-dependent stance that favors holding or potential hikes over easing. Weaker GDP growth forecasts around 0.6% have not offset these price pressures, as traders price in the ECB's focus on returning inflation sustainably to the 2% target. A durable de-escalation in energy markets or sharper decline in oil futures could still open room for cuts by late 2026.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено9% шанс
$31,480 Обс.
$31,480 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
9% шанс
$31,480 Обс.
$31,480 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elevated Eurozone inflation, projected at 3.0% for 2026 amid higher energy prices from the Middle East conflict, underpins the 91% market-implied probability against an ECB rate cut this year. Official Eurosystem staff projections and the Q3 Survey of Professional Forecasters show headline HICP expectations holding near 2.7%, with core measures revised higher, prompting a data-dependent stance that favors holding or potential hikes over easing. Weaker GDP growth forecasts around 0.6% have not offset these price pressures, as traders price in the ECB's focus on returning inflation sustainably to the 2% target. A durable de-escalation in energy markets or sharper decline in oil futures could still open room for cuts by late 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ET
Обсяг
$31,480Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elevated Eurozone inflation, projected at 3.0% for 2026 amid higher energy prices from the Middle East conflict, underpins the 91% market-implied probability against an ECB rate cut this year. Official Eurosystem staff projections and the Q3 Survey of Professional Forecasters show headline HICP expectations holding near 2.7%, with core measures revised higher, prompting a data-dependent stance that favors holding or potential hikes over easing. Weaker GDP growth forecasts around 0.6% have not offset these price pressures, as traders price in the ECB's focus on returning inflation sustainably to the 2% target. A durable de-escalation in energy markets or sharper decline in oil futures could still open room for cuts by late 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$31,480Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Elevated Eurozone inflation, projected at 3.0% for 2026 amid higher energy prices from the Middle East conflict, underpins the 91% market-implied probability against an ECB rate cut this year. Official Eurosystem staff projections and the Q3 Survey of Professional Forecasters show headline HICP expectations holding near 2.7%, with core measures revised higher, prompting a data-dependent stance that favors holding or potential hikes over easing. Weaker GDP growth forecasts around 0.6% have not offset these price pressures, as traders price in the ECB's focus on returning inflation sustainably to the 2% target. A durable de-escalation in energy markets or sharper decline in oil futures could still open room for cuts by late 2026.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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