Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no ECB rate cut in 2026 at 88% implied probability, driven by the Governing Council's April 30 decision to hold key interest rates steady amid Eurozone inflation surging to 2.5% in March, above the 2% target. ECB staff macroeconomic projections forecast headline HICP inflation averaging 2.6% for the year, corroborated by the May 4 Survey of Professional Forecasters at 2.7%, fueled by Mideast conflict-related supply chain pressures and energy costs. President Lagarde signaled a potential June rate hike, while analysts like Morgan Stanley abandoned prior easing expectations and IMF anticipates 50 basis points of tightening to maintain neutral policy. Growth forecasts were downgraded to 0.9%, underscoring persistent price pressures barring sharp disinflation. The next policy meeting in June looms as a key catalyst.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено$27,913 Обс.
$27,913 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
$27,913 Обс.
$27,913 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no ECB rate cut in 2026 at 88% implied probability, driven by the Governing Council's April 30 decision to hold key interest rates steady amid Eurozone inflation surging to 2.5% in March, above the 2% target. ECB staff macroeconomic projections forecast headline HICP inflation averaging 2.6% for the year, corroborated by the May 4 Survey of Professional Forecasters at 2.7%, fueled by Mideast conflict-related supply chain pressures and energy costs. President Lagarde signaled a potential June rate hike, while analysts like Morgan Stanley abandoned prior easing expectations and IMF anticipates 50 basis points of tightening to maintain neutral policy. Growth forecasts were downgraded to 0.9%, underscoring persistent price pressures barring sharp disinflation. The next policy meeting in June looms as a key catalyst.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ET
Обсяг
$27,913Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no ECB rate cut in 2026 at 88% implied probability, driven by the Governing Council's April 30 decision to hold key interest rates steady amid Eurozone inflation surging to 2.5% in March, above the 2% target. ECB staff macroeconomic projections forecast headline HICP inflation averaging 2.6% for the year, corroborated by the May 4 Survey of Professional Forecasters at 2.7%, fueled by Mideast conflict-related supply chain pressures and energy costs. President Lagarde signaled a potential June rate hike, while analysts like Morgan Stanley abandoned prior easing expectations and IMF anticipates 50 basis points of tightening to maintain neutral policy. Growth forecasts were downgraded to 0.9%, underscoring persistent price pressures barring sharp disinflation. The next policy meeting in June looms as a key catalyst.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$27,913Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no ECB rate cut in 2026 at 88% implied probability, driven by the Governing Council's April 30 decision to hold key interest rates steady amid Eurozone inflation surging to 2.5% in March, above the 2% target. ECB staff macroeconomic projections forecast headline HICP inflation averaging 2.6% for the year, corroborated by the May 4 Survey of Professional Forecasters at 2.7%, fueled by Mideast conflict-related supply chain pressures and energy costs. President Lagarde signaled a potential June rate hike, while analysts like Morgan Stanley abandoned prior easing expectations and IMF anticipates 50 basis points of tightening to maintain neutral policy. Growth forecasts were downgraded to 0.9%, underscoring persistent price pressures barring sharp disinflation. The next policy meeting in June looms as a key catalyst.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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