Congress enacted and President Trump signed a continuing resolution (P.L. 119-103) on September 2, 2026, extending federal funding at prior-year levels through December 11 for all 12 appropriations accounts. This bipartisan measure, approved by wide margins in both chambers ahead of the September 30 fiscal year-end, directly supplies the statutory authority needed to prevent any lapse beginning October 1. Traders assign 98.9% probability to no lapse because the enacted stopgap eliminates the immediate deadline risk, consistent with patterns where Congress routinely uses such extensions to defer full-year negotiations. Remaining uncertainty hinges on whether any unforeseen procedural reversal or court action could alter the law’s effect before the new fiscal year starts, though no such developments are pending.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено2% шанс
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Oct 1, 2026
2% шанс
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Oct 1, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a partial or full United States federal government lapse in appropriations occurs on October 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress and the President fail to enact legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse.
A lapse of any duration affecting any portion of the United States federal government will qualify, regardless of whether it results in any operational impact. A subsequent government shutdown is not necessary for this market to resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including from Congress.gov; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Congress enacted and President Trump signed a continuing resolution (P.L. 119-103) on September 2, 2026, extending federal funding at prior-year levels through December 11 for all 12 appropriations accounts. This bipartisan measure, approved by wide margins in both chambers ahead of the September 30 fiscal year-end, directly supplies the statutory authority needed to prevent any lapse beginning October 1. Traders assign 98.9% probability to no lapse because the enacted stopgap eliminates the immediate deadline risk, consistent with patterns where Congress routinely uses such extensions to defer full-year negotiations. Remaining uncertainty hinges on whether any unforeseen procedural reversal or court action could alter the law’s effect before the new fiscal year starts, though no such developments are pending.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a partial or full United States federal government lapse in appropriations occurs on October 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress and the President fail to enact legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse.
A lapse of any duration affecting any portion of the United States federal government will qualify, regardless of whether it results in any operational impact. A subsequent government shutdown is not necessary for this market to resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including from Congress.gov; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress and the President fail to enact legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse.
A lapse of any duration affecting any portion of the United States federal government will qualify, regardless of whether it results in any operational impact. A subsequent government shutdown is not necessary for this market to resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including from Congress.gov; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 5, 2026, 11:30 AM ET
Обсяг
$3,191Дата завершення
Oct 2, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 5, 2026, 11:30 AM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a partial or full United States federal government lapse in appropriations occurs on October 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress and the President fail to enact legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse.
A lapse of any duration affecting any portion of the United States federal government will qualify, regardless of whether it results in any operational impact. A subsequent government shutdown is not necessary for this market to resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including from Congress.gov; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Congress enacted and President Trump signed a continuing resolution (P.L. 119-103) on September 2, 2026, extending federal funding at prior-year levels through December 11 for all 12 appropriations accounts. This bipartisan measure, approved by wide margins in both chambers ahead of the September 30 fiscal year-end, directly supplies the statutory authority needed to prevent any lapse beginning October 1. Traders assign 98.9% probability to no lapse because the enacted stopgap eliminates the immediate deadline risk, consistent with patterns where Congress routinely uses such extensions to defer full-year negotiations. Remaining uncertainty hinges on whether any unforeseen procedural reversal or court action could alter the law’s effect before the new fiscal year starts, though no such developments are pending.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a partial or full United States federal government lapse in appropriations occurs on October 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress and the President fail to enact legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse.
A lapse of any duration affecting any portion of the United States federal government will qualify, regardless of whether it results in any operational impact. A subsequent government shutdown is not necessary for this market to resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including from Congress.gov; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress and the President fail to enact legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse.
A lapse of any duration affecting any portion of the United States federal government will qualify, regardless of whether it results in any operational impact. A subsequent government shutdown is not necessary for this market to resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including from Congress.gov; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$3,191Дата завершення
Oct 2, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 5, 2026, 11:30 AM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...Congress enacted and President Trump signed a continuing resolution (P.L. 119-103) on September 2, 2026, extending federal funding at prior-year levels through December 11 for all 12 appropriations accounts. This bipartisan measure, approved by wide margins in both chambers ahead of the September 30 fiscal year-end, directly supplies the statutory authority needed to prevent any lapse beginning October 1. Traders assign 98.9% probability to no lapse because the enacted stopgap eliminates the immediate deadline risk, consistent with patterns where Congress routinely uses such extensions to defer full-year negotiations. Remaining uncertainty hinges on whether any unforeseen procedural reversal or court action could alter the law’s effect before the new fiscal year starts, though no such developments are pending.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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