Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate peak temperatures in Munich on August 28 will likely reach the upper 20s °C, with trader consensus clustered around 27–29 °C reflecting uncertainty in afternoon convective development. A passing trough and associated instability are expected to trigger scattered thunderstorms, which could cap daytime highs through increased cloud cover, evaporative cooling, and reduced solar insolation despite initially warm advection from the east. Historical August averages near 23 °C provide context, while model spreads arise from differences in timing and intensity of precipitation. Updated National Meteorological Service runs and ensemble guidance over the next 48 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.