Short-term ensemble forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency indicate a likely daily maximum near 24–25°C in Tokyo on September 19 amid persistent cloud cover and periods of rain driven by northerly flow. These conditions suppress solar heating relative to seasonal norms, where mid-September highs historically average 27–28°C. Strengthening El Niño patterns contribute to broader warmth but yield to local synoptic influences here, with model consensus showing limited spread around these values. Traders weighting 24°C and 25°C outcomes reflect this narrow uncertainty, while drier or clearer scenarios could support 26°C. Updated model runs and official guidance through September 18 will refine the outlook ahead of market resolution based on Tokyo station observations.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Tokyo on September 19?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on September 19?
25°C 31%
24°C 30%
26°C 18%
23°C 13%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 19, 2026
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
1%
22°C
4%
23°C
13%
24°C
30%
25°C
31%
26°C
18%
27°C
6%
28°C
2%
29°C
<1%
30°C or higher
<1%
25°C 31%
24°C 30%
26°C 18%
23°C 13%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 19, 2026
20°C or below
$744 Обс.
<1%
21°C
$20 Обс.
1%
22°C
$152 Обс.
4%
23°C
$1,217 Обс.
13%
24°C
$798 Обс.
30%
25°C
$364 Обс.
31%
26°C
$216 Обс.
18%
27°C
$101 Обс.
6%
28°C
$97 Обс.
2%
29°C
$403 Обс.
<1%
30°C or higher
$677 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Short-term ensemble forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency indicate a likely daily maximum near 24–25°C in Tokyo on September 19 amid persistent cloud cover and periods of rain driven by northerly flow. These conditions suppress solar heating relative to seasonal norms, where mid-September highs historically average 27–28°C. Strengthening El Niño patterns contribute to broader warmth but yield to local synoptic influences here, with model consensus showing limited spread around these values. Traders weighting 24°C and 25°C outcomes reflect this narrow uncertainty, while drier or clearer scenarios could support 26°C. Updated model runs and official guidance through September 18 will refine the outlook ahead of market resolution based on Tokyo station observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 17, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Обсяг
$4,789Дата завершення
Sep 19, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 17, 2026, 12:56 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Short-term ensemble forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency indicate a likely daily maximum near 24–25°C in Tokyo on September 19 amid persistent cloud cover and periods of rain driven by northerly flow. These conditions suppress solar heating relative to seasonal norms, where mid-September highs historically average 27–28°C. Strengthening El Niño patterns contribute to broader warmth but yield to local synoptic influences here, with model consensus showing limited spread around these values. Traders weighting 24°C and 25°C outcomes reflect this narrow uncertainty, while drier or clearer scenarios could support 26°C. Updated model runs and official guidance through September 18 will refine the outlook ahead of market resolution based on Tokyo station observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$4,789Дата завершення
Sep 19, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 17, 2026, 12:56 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Short-term ensemble forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency indicate a likely daily maximum near 24–25°C in Tokyo on September 19 amid persistent cloud cover and periods of rain driven by northerly flow. These conditions suppress solar heating relative to seasonal norms, where mid-September highs historically average 27–28°C. Strengthening El Niño patterns contribute to broader warmth but yield to local synoptic influences here, with model consensus showing limited spread around these values. Traders weighting 24°C and 25°C outcomes reflect this narrow uncertainty, while drier or clearer scenarios could support 26°C. Updated model runs and official guidance through September 18 will refine the outlook ahead of market resolution based on Tokyo station observations.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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