**Forecast consensus from official and numerical models positions 23–25°C as the most probable range for Tokyo’s daily maximum on September 18, 2026.** Multiple sources, including the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), Met Office, and global ensembles, indicate a high near 23–25°C (roughly 73–77°F) under mostly cloudy to overcast skies with light northerly winds and a chance of drizzle or light rain. Persistent cloud cover and northerly flow are limiting daytime solar heating and preventing significant warming, consistent with the post-frontal, unsettled pattern observed in recent days. Historical September normals for Tokyo are around 26–27°C, but the current synoptic setup—stable high pressure and suppressed southerly flow—favors values 2–4°C below average. Model runs show limited spread, with most guidance clustered in the low-to-mid 20s Celsius and low probability of exceeding 26°C or falling below 22°C. Trader-implied probabilities closely track this consensus: 24°C leads at 43%, followed by 25°C (24.5%) and 23°C (21.5%), reflecting the tight forecast envelope and modest upside risk from any unexpected clearing. Upcoming JMA and ensemble updates on the 18th itself will provide the final observational confirmation for market resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Tokyo on September 18?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on September 18?
24°C 43%
25°C 25%
23°C 22%
22°C 5%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 18, 2026
19°C or below
<1%
20°C
1%
21°C
2%
22°C
5%
23°C
22%
24°C
43%
25°C
25%
26°C
5%
27°C
2%
28°C
<1%
29°C or higher
<1%
24°C 43%
25°C 25%
23°C 22%
22°C 5%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 18, 2026
19°C or below
$399 Обс.
<1%
20°C
$340 Обс.
1%
21°C
$263 Обс.
2%
22°C
$356 Обс.
5%
23°C
$1,963 Обс.
22%
24°C
$835 Обс.
43%
25°C
$1,466 Обс.
25%
26°C
$457 Обс.
5%
27°C
$318 Обс.
2%
28°C
$278 Обс.
<1%
29°C or higher
$572 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus from official and numerical models positions 23–25°C as the most probable range for Tokyo’s daily maximum on September 18, 2026.** Multiple sources, including the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), Met Office, and global ensembles, indicate a high near 23–25°C (roughly 73–77°F) under mostly cloudy to overcast skies with light northerly winds and a chance of drizzle or light rain.
Persistent cloud cover and northerly flow are limiting daytime solar heating and preventing significant warming, consistent with the post-frontal, unsettled pattern observed in recent days. Historical September normals for Tokyo are around 26–27°C, but the current synoptic setup—stable high pressure and suppressed southerly flow—favors values 2–4°C below average. Model runs show limited spread, with most guidance clustered in the low-to-mid 20s Celsius and low probability of exceeding 26°C or falling below 22°C.
Trader-implied probabilities closely track this consensus: 24°C leads at 43%, followed by 25°C (24.5%) and 23°C (21.5%), reflecting the tight forecast envelope and modest upside risk from any unexpected clearing. Upcoming JMA and ensemble updates on the 18th itself will provide the final observational confirmation for market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Обсяг
$7,244Дата завершення
Sep 18, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus from official and numerical models positions 23–25°C as the most probable range for Tokyo’s daily maximum on September 18, 2026.** Multiple sources, including the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), Met Office, and global ensembles, indicate a high near 23–25°C (roughly 73–77°F) under mostly cloudy to overcast skies with light northerly winds and a chance of drizzle or light rain.
Persistent cloud cover and northerly flow are limiting daytime solar heating and preventing significant warming, consistent with the post-frontal, unsettled pattern observed in recent days. Historical September normals for Tokyo are around 26–27°C, but the current synoptic setup—stable high pressure and suppressed southerly flow—favors values 2–4°C below average. Model runs show limited spread, with most guidance clustered in the low-to-mid 20s Celsius and low probability of exceeding 26°C or falling below 22°C.
Trader-implied probabilities closely track this consensus: 24°C leads at 43%, followed by 25°C (24.5%) and 23°C (21.5%), reflecting the tight forecast envelope and modest upside risk from any unexpected clearing. Upcoming JMA and ensemble updates on the 18th itself will provide the final observational confirmation for market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$7,244Дата завершення
Sep 18, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast consensus from official and numerical models positions 23–25°C as the most probable range for Tokyo’s daily maximum on September 18, 2026.** Multiple sources, including the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), Met Office, and global ensembles, indicate a high near 23–25°C (roughly 73–77°F) under mostly cloudy to overcast skies with light northerly winds and a chance of drizzle or light rain. Persistent cloud cover and northerly flow are limiting daytime solar heating and preventing significant warming, consistent with the post-frontal, unsettled pattern observed in recent days. Historical September normals for Tokyo are around 26–27°C, but the current synoptic setup—stable high pressure and suppressed southerly flow—favors values 2–4°C below average. Model runs show limited spread, with most guidance clustered in the low-to-mid 20s Celsius and low probability of exceeding 26°C or falling below 22°C. Trader-implied probabilities closely track this consensus: 24°C leads at 43%, followed by 25°C (24.5%) and 23°C (21.5%), reflecting the tight forecast envelope and modest upside risk from any unexpected clearing. Upcoming JMA and ensemble updates on the 18th itself will provide the final observational confirmation for market resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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