Recent short-range forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and other models indicate a maximum of 26–27°C in Warsaw on August 14 under scattered cloud cover and light southeasterly flow, driving the market's strong clustering around these levels with over 79% combined implied probability. Light winds and limited daytime heating from partial cloudiness are key factors capping temperatures near seasonal norms, while minimal precipitation risk supports stable conditions. Model agreement has tightened in the past 48 hours as the event nears, though minor shifts in cloud timing or wind could nudge outcomes toward 25°C or 28°C. Official observations from Polish meteorological services will determine resolution based on the daily high.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Warsaw on August 14?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on August 14?
26°C 53%
27°C 27%
25°C 17%
28°C 6%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 14, 2026
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
1%
23°C
1%
24°C
3%
25°C
17%
26°C
53%
27°C
27%
28°C
6%
29°C
3%
30°C or higher
1%
26°C 53%
27°C 27%
25°C 17%
28°C 6%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 14, 2026
20°C or below
$1,721 Обс.
<1%
21°C
$1,056 Обс.
<1%
22°C
$264 Обс.
1%
23°C
$287 Обс.
1%
24°C
$149 Обс.
3%
25°C
$566 Обс.
17%
26°C
$1,380 Обс.
53%
27°C
$126 Обс.
27%
28°C
$84 Обс.
6%
29°C
$41 Обс.
3%
30°C or higher
$97 Обс.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and other models indicate a maximum of 26–27°C in Warsaw on August 14 under scattered cloud cover and light southeasterly flow, driving the market's strong clustering around these levels with over 79% combined implied probability. Light winds and limited daytime heating from partial cloudiness are key factors capping temperatures near seasonal norms, while minimal precipitation risk supports stable conditions. Model agreement has tightened in the past 48 hours as the event nears, though minor shifts in cloud timing or wind could nudge outcomes toward 25°C or 28°C. Official observations from Polish meteorological services will determine resolution based on the daily high.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 12, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
Обсяг
$5,772Дата завершення
Aug 14, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 12, 2026, 1:03 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and other models indicate a maximum of 26–27°C in Warsaw on August 14 under scattered cloud cover and light southeasterly flow, driving the market's strong clustering around these levels with over 79% combined implied probability. Light winds and limited daytime heating from partial cloudiness are key factors capping temperatures near seasonal norms, while minimal precipitation risk supports stable conditions. Model agreement has tightened in the past 48 hours as the event nears, though minor shifts in cloud timing or wind could nudge outcomes toward 25°C or 28°C. Official observations from Polish meteorological services will determine resolution based on the daily high.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$5,772Дата завершення
Aug 14, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 12, 2026, 1:03 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent short-range forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and other models indicate a maximum of 26–27°C in Warsaw on August 14 under scattered cloud cover and light southeasterly flow, driving the market's strong clustering around these levels with over 79% combined implied probability. Light winds and limited daytime heating from partial cloudiness are key factors capping temperatures near seasonal norms, while minimal precipitation risk supports stable conditions. Model agreement has tightened in the past 48 hours as the event nears, though minor shifts in cloud timing or wind could nudge outcomes toward 25°C or 28°C. Official observations from Polish meteorological services will determine resolution based on the daily high.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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