Current short-range forecasts from agencies like the Met Office and BBC place Wuhan's July 4 maximum near 27–29°C under partly cloudy skies with light winds and moderate humidity, aligning with market-implied odds clustered around those values. Model consensus reflects a transitional monsoon pattern with residual moisture from the plum-rain season suppressing full insolation, while steering flow keeps warmer air masses at bay. Small probability spreads among 26–30°C outcomes stem from typical ensemble spread in 48-hour temperature predictions—driven by uncertainties in boundary-layer mixing, afternoon convection, and exact cloud cover—plus local urban heat-island effects that can add 1–2°C variability. Historical July averages near 32°C provide context, yet near-term guidance favors the lower end of the climatological range. Updated model runs over the next 24 hours will likely sharpen resolution criteria for this daily maximum.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Wuhan on July 4?
Highest temperature in Wuhan on July 4?
28°C 27%
29°C 26%
27°C 21%
30°C 14%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Jul 4, 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
3%
26°C
7%
27°C
21%
28°C
27%
29°C
26%
30°C
14%
31°C
5%
32°C
<1%
33°C or higher
<1%
28°C 27%
29°C 26%
27°C 21%
30°C 14%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Jul 4, 2026
23°C or below
$27 Обс.
<1%
24°C
$234 Обс.
<1%
25°C
$105 Обс.
3%
26°C
$27 Обс.
7%
27°C
$133 Обс.
21%
28°C
$5,898 Обс.
27%
29°C
$258 Обс.
26%
30°C
$99 Обс.
14%
31°C
$74 Обс.
5%
32°C
$160 Обс.
<1%
33°C or higher
$31 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current short-range forecasts from agencies like the Met Office and BBC place Wuhan's July 4 maximum near 27–29°C under partly cloudy skies with light winds and moderate humidity, aligning with market-implied odds clustered around those values. Model consensus reflects a transitional monsoon pattern with residual moisture from the plum-rain season suppressing full insolation, while steering flow keeps warmer air masses at bay. Small probability spreads among 26–30°C outcomes stem from typical ensemble spread in 48-hour temperature predictions—driven by uncertainties in boundary-layer mixing, afternoon convection, and exact cloud cover—plus local urban heat-island effects that can add 1–2°C variability. Historical July averages near 32°C provide context, yet near-term guidance favors the lower end of the climatological range. Updated model runs over the next 24 hours will likely sharpen resolution criteria for this daily maximum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Jul 2, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Обсяг
$7,046Дата завершення
Jul 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 2, 2026, 12:02 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHHResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current short-range forecasts from agencies like the Met Office and BBC place Wuhan's July 4 maximum near 27–29°C under partly cloudy skies with light winds and moderate humidity, aligning with market-implied odds clustered around those values. Model consensus reflects a transitional monsoon pattern with residual moisture from the plum-rain season suppressing full insolation, while steering flow keeps warmer air masses at bay. Small probability spreads among 26–30°C outcomes stem from typical ensemble spread in 48-hour temperature predictions—driven by uncertainties in boundary-layer mixing, afternoon convection, and exact cloud cover—plus local urban heat-island effects that can add 1–2°C variability. Historical July averages near 32°C provide context, yet near-term guidance favors the lower end of the climatological range. Updated model runs over the next 24 hours will likely sharpen resolution criteria for this daily maximum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$7,046Дата завершення
Jul 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 2, 2026, 12:02 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHHResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current short-range forecasts from agencies like the Met Office and BBC place Wuhan's July 4 maximum near 27–29°C under partly cloudy skies with light winds and moderate humidity, aligning with market-implied odds clustered around those values. Model consensus reflects a transitional monsoon pattern with residual moisture from the plum-rain season suppressing full insolation, while steering flow keeps warmer air masses at bay. Small probability spreads among 26–30°C outcomes stem from typical ensemble spread in 48-hour temperature predictions—driven by uncertainties in boundary-layer mixing, afternoon convection, and exact cloud cover—plus local urban heat-island effects that can add 1–2°C variability. Historical July averages near 32°C provide context, yet near-term guidance favors the lower end of the climatological range. Updated model runs over the next 24 hours will likely sharpen resolution criteria for this daily maximum.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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