Persistent inflation pressures, driven by elevated oil prices amid Middle East tensions, combined with a hawkish Federal Reserve under Chair Kevin Warsh, remain the dominant forces lifting 30-year Treasury yields near 5.25% as of September 3. Markets price roughly 60-70% odds of a September 15-16 FOMC rate hike, following the July hold and recent Jackson Hole comments emphasizing the 2% target. Fiscal deficit concerns and heavy corporate issuance add upward pressure on long-end yields, though expanded Treasury buybacks have provided limited support. Key near-term catalysts include the September 11 inflation release and the FOMC decision, which could push yields toward or beyond recent peaks near 5.3% if hawkish signals intensify.