Recent inflation data above the Fed’s 2% target, combined with Middle East tensions lifting oil prices and elevating inflation expectations, have driven the 5-year Treasury yield to 4.54% as of September 2, 2026, up sharply year-over-year. Hawkish FOMC communications, including Chair Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks and a June dot plot showing median funds-rate projections at 3.75%, have reinforced market-implied odds of policy tightening and sustained higher term premiums amid heavy Treasury supply and fiscal concerns. The effective federal funds rate near 3.63% and resilient labor conditions further anchor yields, though softening payrolls and potential September FOMC guidance could influence near-term moves. Traders monitor upcoming CPI and employment releases for signals on whether yields can test lower levels before month-end.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHow low will 5-year Treasury yield get in September?
How low will 5-year Treasury yield get in September?
НОВЕ
Sep 30, 2026
Below 4.52%
51%
Below 4.49%
49%
Below 4.46%
49%
Below 4.43%
49%
Below 4.40%
50%
Below 4.37%
50%
Below 4.32%
50%
Below 4.27%
50%
Below 4.20%
51%
$0.00 Обс.
Below 4.52%
$0 Обс.
51%
Below 4.49%
$0 Обс.
49%
Below 4.46%
$0 Обс.
49%
Below 4.43%
$0 Обс.
49%
Below 4.40%
$0 Обс.
50%
Below 4.37%
$0 Обс.
50%
Below 4.32%
$0 Обс.
50%
Below 4.27%
$0 Обс.
50%
Below 4.20%
$0 Обс.
51%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Recent inflation data above the Fed’s 2% target, combined with Middle East tensions lifting oil prices and elevating inflation expectations, have driven the 5-year Treasury yield to 4.54% as of September 2, 2026, up sharply year-over-year. Hawkish FOMC communications, including Chair Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks and a June dot plot showing median funds-rate projections at 3.75%, have reinforced market-implied odds of policy tightening and sustained higher term premiums amid heavy Treasury supply and fiscal concerns. The effective federal funds rate near 3.63% and resilient labor conditions further anchor yields, though softening payrolls and potential September FOMC guidance could influence near-term moves. Traders monitor upcoming CPI and employment releases for signals on whether yields can test lower levels before month-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Ринок відкрито: Sep 2, 2026, 8:45 PM ET
Обсяг
$0Дата завершення
Sep 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 2, 2026, 8:45 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Recent inflation data above the Fed’s 2% target, combined with Middle East tensions lifting oil prices and elevating inflation expectations, have driven the 5-year Treasury yield to 4.54% as of September 2, 2026, up sharply year-over-year. Hawkish FOMC communications, including Chair Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks and a June dot plot showing median funds-rate projections at 3.75%, have reinforced market-implied odds of policy tightening and sustained higher term premiums amid heavy Treasury supply and fiscal concerns. The effective federal funds rate near 3.63% and resilient labor conditions further anchor yields, though softening payrolls and potential September FOMC guidance could influence near-term moves. Traders monitor upcoming CPI and employment releases for signals on whether yields can test lower levels before month-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Обсяг
$0Дата завершення
Sep 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 2, 2026, 8:45 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...Recent inflation data above the Fed’s 2% target, combined with Middle East tensions lifting oil prices and elevating inflation expectations, have driven the 5-year Treasury yield to 4.54% as of September 2, 2026, up sharply year-over-year. Hawkish FOMC communications, including Chair Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks and a June dot plot showing median funds-rate projections at 3.75%, have reinforced market-implied odds of policy tightening and sustained higher term premiums amid heavy Treasury supply and fiscal concerns. The effective federal funds rate near 3.63% and resilient labor conditions further anchor yields, though softening payrolls and potential September FOMC guidance could influence near-term moves. Traders monitor upcoming CPI and employment releases for signals on whether yields can test lower levels before month-end.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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