Trader consensus assigns a 72% implied probability to no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2026, reflecting fresh Republican-led House Oversight Committee scrutiny of CEO Sam Altman's pre-IPO business dealings and personal investments, which surfaced in the past 48 hours and raises conflict-of-interest red flags ahead of any securities filing. CFO Sarah Friar's April warnings that a 2026 timeline is overly aggressive—amid $600 billion compute commitments, projected $14 billion 2026 losses, and missed user targets—compound doubts, echoing PitchBook's May assessment that Q4 goals are unattainable. Strong $25 billion annualized revenue and $852 billion private valuation underpin 10.5% odds for a 1.5T+ debut, but regulatory probes and Musk trial testimony loom as key catalysts.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоЗакриття IPO OpenAI Ринкова капіталізація
Закриття IPO OpenAI Ринкова капіталізація
Жодного IPO до 31 грудня 2026 року 72%
1,5 трлн+ 10.6%
1,25–1,5 трлн 3.5%
500–750 млрд 3.2%
$1,637,908 Обс.
$1,637,908 Обс.
<500 млрд
1%
500–750 млрд
3%
750 млрд – 1 трлн
2%
1–1,25 трлн
2%
1,25–1,5 трлн
3%
1,5 трлн+
11%
Жодного IPO до 31 грудня 2026 року
72%
Жодного IPO до 31 грудня 2026 року 72%
1,5 трлн+ 10.6%
1,25–1,5 трлн 3.5%
500–750 млрд 3.2%
$1,637,908 Обс.
$1,637,908 Обс.
<500 млрд
1%
500–750 млрд
3%
750 млрд – 1 трлн
2%
1–1,25 трлн
2%
1,25–1,5 трлн
3%
1,5 трлн+
11%
Жодного IPO до 31 грудня 2026 року
72%
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus assigns a 72% implied probability to no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2026, reflecting fresh Republican-led House Oversight Committee scrutiny of CEO Sam Altman's pre-IPO business dealings and personal investments, which surfaced in the past 48 hours and raises conflict-of-interest red flags ahead of any securities filing. CFO Sarah Friar's April warnings that a 2026 timeline is overly aggressive—amid $600 billion compute commitments, projected $14 billion 2026 losses, and missed user targets—compound doubts, echoing PitchBook's May assessment that Q4 goals are unattainable. Strong $25 billion annualized revenue and $852 billion private valuation underpin 10.5% odds for a 1.5T+ debut, but regulatory probes and Musk trial testimony loom as key catalysts.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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