The leading 400-500k outcome reflects trader assessment of sustained but constrained enforcement capacity under the second Trump administration. ICE data through mid-2026 show roughly 356,000 removals in the first ten months of fiscal year 2026 at an average pace near 1,260 daily, placing the agency on track for a full-year total in the low-to-mid 400,000s assuming steady operations. Expanded detention beds, additional agents, and expedited removal procedures have lifted volumes well above prior fiscal years, yet logistical limits, court backlogs, third-country acceptance constraints, and reliance on voluntary departures continue to cap totals far below the administration’s one-million annual target. Recent July detention records and ongoing interior enforcement operations support the current implied probability range without evidence of acceleration sufficient to shift the market materially higher.