**Seven Republican senators have announced they will not seek re-election in the 2026 cycle, aligning with the market's leading 60% probability on that outcome.** Announcements include Thom Tillis (NC, June 2025), Joni Ernst (IA, September 2025), Cynthia Lummis (WY, December 2025), Steve Daines (MT, March 2026), and Alan Armstrong (OK, March 2026), with two additional Republican retirements confirmed by May 2026 to reach the total of seven alongside four Democratic departures. This represents the highest Senate retirement count since 1996. Key drivers include advanced age for several incumbents, tensions with the Trump administration over executive power and policy priorities, opportunities to pursue other offices, and broader frustration with congressional gridlock. No major new announcements have emerged in the past month, stabilizing trader consensus around this figure while leaving limited room for additional shifts before filing deadlines.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено7 61%
8 14.6%
11 11.3%
6 6.4%
$77,264 Обс.
$77,264 Обс.
Aug 31, 2026
<5
3%
5
6%
6
6%
7
61%
8
11%
9
1%
10
2%
11
11%
12+
1%
7 61%
8 14.6%
11 11.3%
6 6.4%
$77,264 Обс.
$77,264 Обс.
Aug 31, 2026
<5
$22,100 Обс.
3%
5
$16,742 Обс.
6%
6
$26,564 Обс.
6%
7
$2,153 Обс.
61%
8
$1,604 Обс.
11%
9
$1,445 Обс.
1%
10
$1,308 Обс.
2%
11
$928 Обс.
11%
12+
$4,421 Обс.
1%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Seven Republican senators have announced they will not seek re-election in the 2026 cycle, aligning with the market's leading 60% probability on that outcome.**
Announcements include Thom Tillis (NC, June 2025), Joni Ernst (IA, September 2025), Cynthia Lummis (WY, December 2025), Steve Daines (MT, March 2026), and Alan Armstrong (OK, March 2026), with two additional Republican retirements confirmed by May 2026 to reach the total of seven alongside four Democratic departures. This represents the highest Senate retirement count since 1996. Key drivers include advanced age for several incumbents, tensions with the Trump administration over executive power and policy priorities, opportunities to pursue other offices, and broader frustration with congressional gridlock. No major new announcements have emerged in the past month, stabilizing trader consensus around this figure while leaving limited room for additional shifts before filing deadlines.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
Обсяг
$77,264Дата завершення
Aug 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Seven Republican senators have announced they will not seek re-election in the 2026 cycle, aligning with the market's leading 60% probability on that outcome.**
Announcements include Thom Tillis (NC, June 2025), Joni Ernst (IA, September 2025), Cynthia Lummis (WY, December 2025), Steve Daines (MT, March 2026), and Alan Armstrong (OK, March 2026), with two additional Republican retirements confirmed by May 2026 to reach the total of seven alongside four Democratic departures. This represents the highest Senate retirement count since 1996. Key drivers include advanced age for several incumbents, tensions with the Trump administration over executive power and policy priorities, opportunities to pursue other offices, and broader frustration with congressional gridlock. No major new announcements have emerged in the past month, stabilizing trader consensus around this figure while leaving limited room for additional shifts before filing deadlines.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$77,264Дата завершення
Aug 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Seven Republican senators have announced they will not seek re-election in the 2026 cycle, aligning with the market's leading 60% probability on that outcome.** Announcements include Thom Tillis (NC, June 2025), Joni Ernst (IA, September 2025), Cynthia Lummis (WY, December 2025), Steve Daines (MT, March 2026), and Alan Armstrong (OK, March 2026), with two additional Republican retirements confirmed by May 2026 to reach the total of seven alongside four Democratic departures. This represents the highest Senate retirement count since 1996. Key drivers include advanced age for several incumbents, tensions with the Trump administration over executive power and policy priorities, opportunities to pursue other offices, and broader frustration with congressional gridlock. No major new announcements have emerged in the past month, stabilizing trader consensus around this figure while leaving limited room for additional shifts before filing deadlines.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання