The current tally of announced Republican House departures stands at 36–37, anchoring the 36–39 outcome as the dominant market range. Most departures involve members retiring outright or seeking Senate, gubernatorial, or other statewide offices amid a narrow Republican majority and the historically elevated retirement pace for the 2026 cycle. Recent trackers show limited new announcements in the past several weeks, with the total stabilizing after earlier waves tied to redistricting effects and institutional pressures. Additional late shifts remain possible before filing deadlines but have not materialized at scale, keeping higher or lower brackets at low implied probabilities.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHow many Republican House members not running in 2026?
How many Republican House members not running in 2026?
36–39 82.5%
40–43 6.2%
32–35 5.7%
24–27 1.6%
$71,889 Обс.
$71,889 Обс.
Aug 30, 2026
<24
1%
24–27
2%
28–31
<1%
32–35
6%
36–39
83%
40–43
6%
44+
1%
36–39 82.5%
40–43 6.2%
32–35 5.7%
24–27 1.6%
$71,889 Обс.
$71,889 Обс.
Aug 30, 2026
<24
$6,266 Обс.
1%
24–27
$20,164 Обс.
2%
28–31
$23,648 Обс.
<1%
32–35
$6,174 Обс.
6%
36–39
$8,153 Обс.
83%
40–43
$3,871 Обс.
6%
44+
$3,613 Обс.
1%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The current tally of announced Republican House departures stands at 36–37, anchoring the 36–39 outcome as the dominant market range. Most departures involve members retiring outright or seeking Senate, gubernatorial, or other statewide offices amid a narrow Republican majority and the historically elevated retirement pace for the 2026 cycle. Recent trackers show limited new announcements in the past several weeks, with the total stabilizing after earlier waves tied to redistricting effects and institutional pressures. Additional late shifts remain possible before filing deadlines but have not materialized at scale, keeping higher or lower brackets at low implied probabilities.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ET
Обсяг
$71,889Дата завершення
Aug 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The current tally of announced Republican House departures stands at 36–37, anchoring the 36–39 outcome as the dominant market range. Most departures involve members retiring outright or seeking Senate, gubernatorial, or other statewide offices amid a narrow Republican majority and the historically elevated retirement pace for the 2026 cycle. Recent trackers show limited new announcements in the past several weeks, with the total stabilizing after earlier waves tied to redistricting effects and institutional pressures. Additional late shifts remain possible before filing deadlines but have not materialized at scale, keeping higher or lower brackets at low implied probabilities.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$71,889Дата завершення
Aug 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The current tally of announced Republican House departures stands at 36–37, anchoring the 36–39 outcome as the dominant market range. Most departures involve members retiring outright or seeking Senate, gubernatorial, or other statewide offices amid a narrow Republican majority and the historically elevated retirement pace for the 2026 cycle. Recent trackers show limited new announcements in the past several weeks, with the total stabilizing after earlier waves tied to redistricting effects and institutional pressures. Additional late shifts remain possible before filing deadlines but have not materialized at scale, keeping higher or lower brackets at low implied probabilities.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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