**Republican House retirements and departures have reached 37 as of mid-August 2026, placing the total firmly inside the 36–39 range that commands 78.5% market probability.** Ballotpedia and Wikipedia trackers both list exactly 37 Republicans among the 60 House incumbents who have announced they will not seek re-election, a figure that includes both full retirements from public office and those leaving to pursue governorships, Senate seats, or other roles. This elevated Republican exit rate—roughly 16% of the conference—reflects a broader wave of departures driven by the slim House majority, primary challenges, redistricting effects in some states, and institutional fatigue among members with shorter average tenure. No large cluster of new announcements has occurred in recent weeks to shift the count outside the leading bin, and historical patterns for midterm cycles show that most additional decisions tend to cluster earlier rather than later. The market’s heavy weighting on 36–39 therefore tracks the verified tally of confirmed non-candidates while leaving limited room for late surprises that could push the total into adjacent ranges.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHow many Republican House members not running in 2026?
How many Republican House members not running in 2026?
36–39 78.8%
40–43 6.0%
44+ 3.0%
<24 2.9%
$71,657 Обс.
$71,657 Обс.
Aug 31, 2026
<24
3%
24–27
2%
28–31
1%
32–35
1%
36–39
79%
40–43
6%
44+
3%
36–39 78.8%
40–43 6.0%
44+ 3.0%
<24 2.9%
$71,657 Обс.
$71,657 Обс.
Aug 31, 2026
<24
$6,236 Обс.
3%
24–27
$20,139 Обс.
2%
28–31
$23,623 Обс.
1%
32–35
$6,149 Обс.
1%
36–39
$8,123 Обс.
79%
40–43
$3,846 Обс.
6%
44+
$3,541 Обс.
3%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Republican House retirements and departures have reached 37 as of mid-August 2026, placing the total firmly inside the 36–39 range that commands 78.5% market probability.**
Ballotpedia and Wikipedia trackers both list exactly 37 Republicans among the 60 House incumbents who have announced they will not seek re-election, a figure that includes both full retirements from public office and those leaving to pursue governorships, Senate seats, or other roles. This elevated Republican exit rate—roughly 16% of the conference—reflects a broader wave of departures driven by the slim House majority, primary challenges, redistricting effects in some states, and institutional fatigue among members with shorter average tenure.
No large cluster of new announcements has occurred in recent weeks to shift the count outside the leading bin, and historical patterns for midterm cycles show that most additional decisions tend to cluster earlier rather than later. The market’s heavy weighting on 36–39 therefore tracks the verified tally of confirmed non-candidates while leaving limited room for late surprises that could push the total into adjacent ranges.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ET
Обсяг
$71,657Дата завершення
Aug 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Republican House retirements and departures have reached 37 as of mid-August 2026, placing the total firmly inside the 36–39 range that commands 78.5% market probability.**
Ballotpedia and Wikipedia trackers both list exactly 37 Republicans among the 60 House incumbents who have announced they will not seek re-election, a figure that includes both full retirements from public office and those leaving to pursue governorships, Senate seats, or other roles. This elevated Republican exit rate—roughly 16% of the conference—reflects a broader wave of departures driven by the slim House majority, primary challenges, redistricting effects in some states, and institutional fatigue among members with shorter average tenure.
No large cluster of new announcements has occurred in recent weeks to shift the count outside the leading bin, and historical patterns for midterm cycles show that most additional decisions tend to cluster earlier rather than later. The market’s heavy weighting on 36–39 therefore tracks the verified tally of confirmed non-candidates while leaving limited room for late surprises that could push the total into adjacent ranges.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$71,657Дата завершення
Aug 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Republican House retirements and departures have reached 37 as of mid-August 2026, placing the total firmly inside the 36–39 range that commands 78.5% market probability.** Ballotpedia and Wikipedia trackers both list exactly 37 Republicans among the 60 House incumbents who have announced they will not seek re-election, a figure that includes both full retirements from public office and those leaving to pursue governorships, Senate seats, or other roles. This elevated Republican exit rate—roughly 16% of the conference—reflects a broader wave of departures driven by the slim House majority, primary challenges, redistricting effects in some states, and institutional fatigue among members with shorter average tenure. No large cluster of new announcements has occurred in recent weeks to shift the count outside the leading bin, and historical patterns for midterm cycles show that most additional decisions tend to cluster earlier rather than later. The market’s heavy weighting on 36–39 therefore tracks the verified tally of confirmed non-candidates while leaving limited room for late surprises that could push the total into adjacent ranges.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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