**Trader consensus centers on 4-6 Republican House incumbents losing primaries overall.** Four have already fallen this cycle—Dan Crenshaw in Texas, Thomas Massie in Kentucky, Andy Ogles in Tennessee, and Cory Mills in Florida—driven by a mix of Trump-aligned challenges, ethics controversies, and redistricting effects in states with new maps. Most remaining GOP incumbents have advanced without serious threats, and the pace of defeats has not accelerated into a broader wave despite elevated anti-incumbent sentiment. With the primary calendar largely complete in many states, additional losses appear limited unless late surprises emerge in open contests or runoff scenarios. This range reflects the observed pattern of targeted accountability rather than systemic turnover.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHow many Republican House Incumbents will not win their Primary?
How many Republican House Incumbents will not win their Primary?
4-6 80.8%
7-9 7.8%
13-15 4.7%
10-12 3.6%
$81,117 Обс.
$81,117 Обс.
≤3
<1%
4-6
81%
7-9
8%
10-12
4%
13-15
5%
>15
2%
4-6 80.8%
7-9 7.8%
13-15 4.7%
10-12 3.6%
$81,117 Обс.
$81,117 Обс.
≤3
$38,821 Обс.
<1%
4-6
$24,120 Обс.
81%
7-9
$6,475 Обс.
8%
10-12
$5,051 Обс.
4%
13-15
$3,933 Обс.
5%
>15
$2,716 Обс.
2%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.**Trader consensus centers on 4-6 Republican House incumbents losing primaries overall.** Four have already fallen this cycle—Dan Crenshaw in Texas, Thomas Massie in Kentucky, Andy Ogles in Tennessee, and Cory Mills in Florida—driven by a mix of Trump-aligned challenges, ethics controversies, and redistricting effects in states with new maps. Most remaining GOP incumbents have advanced without serious threats, and the pace of defeats has not accelerated into a broader wave despite elevated anti-incumbent sentiment. With the primary calendar largely complete in many states, additional losses appear limited unless late surprises emerge in open contests or runoff scenarios. This range reflects the observed pattern of targeted accountability rather than systemic turnover.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Ринок відкрито: Jan 14, 2026, 2:52 PM ET
Обсяг
$81,117Ринок відкрито
Jan 14, 2026, 2:52 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.**Trader consensus centers on 4-6 Republican House incumbents losing primaries overall.** Four have already fallen this cycle—Dan Crenshaw in Texas, Thomas Massie in Kentucky, Andy Ogles in Tennessee, and Cory Mills in Florida—driven by a mix of Trump-aligned challenges, ethics controversies, and redistricting effects in states with new maps. Most remaining GOP incumbents have advanced without serious threats, and the pace of defeats has not accelerated into a broader wave despite elevated anti-incumbent sentiment. With the primary calendar largely complete in many states, additional losses appear limited unless late surprises emerge in open contests or runoff scenarios. This range reflects the observed pattern of targeted accountability rather than systemic turnover.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Обсяг
$81,117Ринок відкрито
Jan 14, 2026, 2:52 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
**Trader consensus centers on 4-6 Republican House incumbents losing primaries overall.** Four have already fallen this cycle—Dan Crenshaw in Texas, Thomas Massie in Kentucky, Andy Ogles in Tennessee, and Cory Mills in Florida—driven by a mix of Trump-aligned challenges, ethics controversies, and redistricting effects in states with new maps. Most remaining GOP incumbents have advanced without serious threats, and the pace of defeats has not accelerated into a broader wave despite elevated anti-incumbent sentiment. With the primary calendar largely complete in many states, additional losses appear limited unless late surprises emerge in open contests or runoff scenarios. This range reflects the observed pattern of targeted accountability rather than systemic turnover.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоПов'язане
Will Democratic House incumbents not win in between ten and twelve nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?
75%
Will Republican Senate incumbents not win in exactly three nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?
82%
Will Democratic Senate incumbents win all their nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?
93%
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання