Ongoing Houthi threats and a declared maritime embargo targeting Saudi shipping since late July have sharply curtailed vessel flows through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, with weekly transits dropping from prior levels near 350 to around 260-270 and showing limited recovery amid fresh missile claims against Saudi tankers. Heightened regional tensions tied to the Iran-US conflict, combined with a new 14-nation naval coalition response, have sustained rerouting incentives for commercial operators wary of insurance and security risks, supporting the market's emphasis on sub-200 weekly volumes. Recent daily tallies near 25-30 commodity ships underscore the persistent suppression relative to historical baselines, with any stabilization unlikely to lift counts above the leading implied-probability range before the week's close.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHow many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 10?
How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 10?
<180 44%
180-199 32%
220+ 13%
200-219 6.9%
$11,409 Обс.
$11,409 Обс.
Aug 16, 2026
<180
44%
180-199
30%
200-219
7%
220+
13%
<180 44%
180-199 32%
220+ 13%
200-219 6.9%
$11,409 Обс.
$11,409 Обс.
Aug 16, 2026
<180
$5,540 Обс.
44%
180-199
$1,919 Обс.
30%
200-219
$749 Обс.
7%
220+
$3,200 Обс.
13%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Ongoing Houthi threats and a declared maritime embargo targeting Saudi shipping since late July have sharply curtailed vessel flows through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, with weekly transits dropping from prior levels near 350 to around 260-270 and showing limited recovery amid fresh missile claims against Saudi tankers. Heightened regional tensions tied to the Iran-US conflict, combined with a new 14-nation naval coalition response, have sustained rerouting incentives for commercial operators wary of insurance and security risks, supporting the market's emphasis on sub-200 weekly volumes. Recent daily tallies near 25-30 commodity ships underscore the persistent suppression relative to historical baselines, with any stabilization unlikely to lift counts above the leading implied-probability range before the week's close.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
Обсяг
$11,409Дата завершення
Aug 16, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Ongoing Houthi threats and a declared maritime embargo targeting Saudi shipping since late July have sharply curtailed vessel flows through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, with weekly transits dropping from prior levels near 350 to around 260-270 and showing limited recovery amid fresh missile claims against Saudi tankers. Heightened regional tensions tied to the Iran-US conflict, combined with a new 14-nation naval coalition response, have sustained rerouting incentives for commercial operators wary of insurance and security risks, supporting the market's emphasis on sub-200 weekly volumes. Recent daily tallies near 25-30 commodity ships underscore the persistent suppression relative to historical baselines, with any stabilization unlikely to lift counts above the leading implied-probability range before the week's close.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Обсяг
$11,409Дата завершення
Aug 16, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing Houthi threats and a declared maritime embargo targeting Saudi shipping since late July have sharply curtailed vessel flows through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, with weekly transits dropping from prior levels near 350 to around 260-270 and showing limited recovery amid fresh missile claims against Saudi tankers. Heightened regional tensions tied to the Iran-US conflict, combined with a new 14-nation naval coalition response, have sustained rerouting incentives for commercial operators wary of insurance and security risks, supporting the market's emphasis on sub-200 weekly volumes. Recent daily tallies near 25-30 commodity ships underscore the persistent suppression relative to historical baselines, with any stabilization unlikely to lift counts above the leading implied-probability range before the week's close.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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