Incumbent Republican Mike Bost holds a commanding position in the IL-12 race due to the district’s consistent R+22 partisan lean and his repeated strong performances, including a 74% margin in 2024. Both Bost and Democratic nominee Julie Fortier advanced through the March 2026 primaries with little opposition, leaving the general election matchup largely unchanged. The seat covers southern Illinois including Carbondale, Marion, and O’Fallon areas that have favored Republicans in recent cycles. Election forecasters rate the contest Safe Republican, aligning with trader consensus reflected in the 94% probability for the Republican Party. Factors that could narrow the margin or shift outcomes include a national Democratic surge, unusually high turnout in Democratic strongholds, or late-breaking developments such as candidate health issues or major scandals.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоIL-12 House Election Winner
IL-12 House Election Winner
$21,481 Обс.
$21,481 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
94%
Democratic Party
4%
$21,481 Обс.
$21,481 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$10,390 Обс.
94%
Democratic Party
$11,092 Обс.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mike Bost holds a commanding position in the IL-12 race due to the district’s consistent R+22 partisan lean and his repeated strong performances, including a 74% margin in 2024. Both Bost and Democratic nominee Julie Fortier advanced through the March 2026 primaries with little opposition, leaving the general election matchup largely unchanged. The seat covers southern Illinois including Carbondale, Marion, and O’Fallon areas that have favored Republicans in recent cycles. Election forecasters rate the contest Safe Republican, aligning with trader consensus reflected in the 94% probability for the Republican Party. Factors that could narrow the margin or shift outcomes include a national Democratic surge, unusually high turnout in Democratic strongholds, or late-breaking developments such as candidate health issues or major scandals.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Обсяг
$21,481Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mike Bost holds a commanding position in the IL-12 race due to the district’s consistent R+22 partisan lean and his repeated strong performances, including a 74% margin in 2024. Both Bost and Democratic nominee Julie Fortier advanced through the March 2026 primaries with little opposition, leaving the general election matchup largely unchanged. The seat covers southern Illinois including Carbondale, Marion, and O’Fallon areas that have favored Republicans in recent cycles. Election forecasters rate the contest Safe Republican, aligning with trader consensus reflected in the 94% probability for the Republican Party. Factors that could narrow the margin or shift outcomes include a national Democratic surge, unusually high turnout in Democratic strongholds, or late-breaking developments such as candidate health issues or major scandals.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$21,481Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Mike Bost holds a commanding position in the IL-12 race due to the district’s consistent R+22 partisan lean and his repeated strong performances, including a 74% margin in 2024. Both Bost and Democratic nominee Julie Fortier advanced through the March 2026 primaries with little opposition, leaving the general election matchup largely unchanged. The seat covers southern Illinois including Carbondale, Marion, and O’Fallon areas that have favored Republicans in recent cycles. Election forecasters rate the contest Safe Republican, aligning with trader consensus reflected in the 94% probability for the Republican Party. Factors that could narrow the margin or shift outcomes include a national Democratic surge, unusually high turnout in Democratic strongholds, or late-breaking developments such as candidate health issues or major scandals.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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