Incumbent Republican Jefferson Shreve's victory in the May 5 primary—securing 53% against challenger Sarah Janisse Brown—has solidified trader consensus at 90.5% implied probability for a GOP hold in Indiana's 6th Congressional District, rated Solid Republican with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+16. Facing Democratic nominee Cynthia Wirth in a rematch from his prior win, Shreve benefits from incumbency advantage and the district's strong Republican lean in this midterm cycle. No recent polls show competitive positioning, reflecting historical base rates for safe seats. Scenarios that could shift odds include a major Shreve scandal, national Democratic wave, or legal challenges before the November 3 general election.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоIN-06 House Election Winner
IN-06 House Election Winner
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
91%
Democratic Party
9%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$6,274 Обс.
91%
Democratic Party
$714 Обс.
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Jefferson Shreve's victory in the May 5 primary—securing 53% against challenger Sarah Janisse Brown—has solidified trader consensus at 90.5% implied probability for a GOP hold in Indiana's 6th Congressional District, rated Solid Republican with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+16. Facing Democratic nominee Cynthia Wirth in a rematch from his prior win, Shreve benefits from incumbency advantage and the district's strong Republican lean in this midterm cycle. No recent polls show competitive positioning, reflecting historical base rates for safe seats. Scenarios that could shift odds include a major Shreve scandal, national Democratic wave, or legal challenges before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Обсяг
$6,988Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Jefferson Shreve's victory in the May 5 primary—securing 53% against challenger Sarah Janisse Brown—has solidified trader consensus at 90.5% implied probability for a GOP hold in Indiana's 6th Congressional District, rated Solid Republican with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+16. Facing Democratic nominee Cynthia Wirth in a rematch from his prior win, Shreve benefits from incumbency advantage and the district's strong Republican lean in this midterm cycle. No recent polls show competitive positioning, reflecting historical base rates for safe seats. Scenarios that could shift odds include a major Shreve scandal, national Democratic wave, or legal challenges before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$6,988Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Jefferson Shreve's victory in the May 5 primary—securing 53% against challenger Sarah Janisse Brown—has solidified trader consensus at 90.5% implied probability for a GOP hold in Indiana's 6th Congressional District, rated Solid Republican with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+16. Facing Democratic nominee Cynthia Wirth in a rematch from his prior win, Shreve benefits from incumbency advantage and the district's strong Republican lean in this midterm cycle. No recent polls show competitive positioning, reflecting historical base rates for safe seats. Scenarios that could shift odds include a major Shreve scandal, national Democratic wave, or legal challenges before the November 3 general election.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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