Iran’s post-February 2026 leadership transition after U.S.-Israeli strikes killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has featured internal power struggles, with hardline factions including the Paydari Front accusing President Masoud Pezeshkian, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi of a “soft coup” by elevating the Supreme National Security Council over the new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei and parliament. Iranian authorities have described January 2026 nationwide protests—suppressed with thousands of casualties—as a U.S.- and Israel-backed “coup attempt,” leading to fresh arrests of alleged ringleaders announced August 28. Recent hardline military and Basij appointments, defiance of U.S. economic pressure, and warnings against unrest reflect regime efforts to consolidate control amid economic hardship that could fuel further domestic challenges. These verified developments, alongside the failed external regime-change effort, shape trader assessments of coup-related probabilities.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено$2,123,321 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
December 31
9%
$2,123,321 Обс.
December 31
$82,095 Обс.
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran’s post-February 2026 leadership transition after U.S.-Israeli strikes killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has featured internal power struggles, with hardline factions including the Paydari Front accusing President Masoud Pezeshkian, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi of a “soft coup” by elevating the Supreme National Security Council over the new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei and parliament. Iranian authorities have described January 2026 nationwide protests—suppressed with thousands of casualties—as a U.S.- and Israel-backed “coup attempt,” leading to fresh arrests of alleged ringleaders announced August 28. Recent hardline military and Basij appointments, defiance of U.S. economic pressure, and warnings against unrest reflect regime efforts to consolidate control amid economic hardship that could fuel further domestic challenges. These verified developments, alongside the failed external regime-change effort, shape trader assessments of coup-related probabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ET
Обсяг
$2,123,321Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran’s post-February 2026 leadership transition after U.S.-Israeli strikes killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has featured internal power struggles, with hardline factions including the Paydari Front accusing President Masoud Pezeshkian, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi of a “soft coup” by elevating the Supreme National Security Council over the new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei and parliament. Iranian authorities have described January 2026 nationwide protests—suppressed with thousands of casualties—as a U.S.- and Israel-backed “coup attempt,” leading to fresh arrests of alleged ringleaders announced August 28. Recent hardline military and Basij appointments, defiance of U.S. economic pressure, and warnings against unrest reflect regime efforts to consolidate control amid economic hardship that could fuel further domestic challenges. These verified developments, alongside the failed external regime-change effort, shape trader assessments of coup-related probabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$2,123,321Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...Iran’s post-February 2026 leadership transition after U.S.-Israeli strikes killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has featured internal power struggles, with hardline factions including the Paydari Front accusing President Masoud Pezeshkian, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi of a “soft coup” by elevating the Supreme National Security Council over the new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei and parliament. Iranian authorities have described January 2026 nationwide protests—suppressed with thousands of casualties—as a U.S.- and Israel-backed “coup attempt,” leading to fresh arrests of alleged ringleaders announced August 28. Recent hardline military and Basij appointments, defiance of U.S. economic pressure, and warnings against unrest reflect regime efforts to consolidate control amid economic hardship that could fuel further domestic challenges. These verified developments, alongside the failed external regime-change effort, shape trader assessments of coup-related probabilities.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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