The Iranian regime’s post-war consolidation under Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, elected in March 2026, combined with ongoing efforts to rebuild internal security forces and manage economic pressures, underpins the strong trader consensus against a coup attempt by June 30. Recent official statements emphasize wartime-style planning, Basij mobilization, and equipment upgrades for law enforcement to address inflation and potential unrest, while diplomatic moves seek guarantees on Strait of Hormuz control ahead of any ceasefire talks. These developments signal sustained leadership cohesion and institutional control rather than fractures that could enable a rapid internal challenge, consistent with the 91.5 percent implied probability that no such attempt will materialize in the resolution window.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоТак
$1,128,325 Обс.
$1,128,325 Обс.
Jun 30, 2026
Так
$1,128,325 Обс.
$1,128,325 Обс.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The Iranian regime’s post-war consolidation under Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, elected in March 2026, combined with ongoing efforts to rebuild internal security forces and manage economic pressures, underpins the strong trader consensus against a coup attempt by June 30. Recent official statements emphasize wartime-style planning, Basij mobilization, and equipment upgrades for law enforcement to address inflation and potential unrest, while diplomatic moves seek guarantees on Strait of Hormuz control ahead of any ceasefire talks. These developments signal sustained leadership cohesion and institutional control rather than fractures that could enable a rapid internal challenge, consistent with the 91.5 percent implied probability that no such attempt will materialize in the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
Обсяг
$1,128,325Дата завершення
Jun 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The Iranian regime’s post-war consolidation under Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, elected in March 2026, combined with ongoing efforts to rebuild internal security forces and manage economic pressures, underpins the strong trader consensus against a coup attempt by June 30. Recent official statements emphasize wartime-style planning, Basij mobilization, and equipment upgrades for law enforcement to address inflation and potential unrest, while diplomatic moves seek guarantees on Strait of Hormuz control ahead of any ceasefire talks. These developments signal sustained leadership cohesion and institutional control rather than fractures that could enable a rapid internal challenge, consistent with the 91.5 percent implied probability that no such attempt will materialize in the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$1,128,325Дата завершення
Jun 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Iranian regime’s post-war consolidation under Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, elected in March 2026, combined with ongoing efforts to rebuild internal security forces and manage economic pressures, underpins the strong trader consensus against a coup attempt by June 30. Recent official statements emphasize wartime-style planning, Basij mobilization, and equipment upgrades for law enforcement to address inflation and potential unrest, while diplomatic moves seek guarantees on Strait of Hormuz control ahead of any ceasefire talks. These developments signal sustained leadership cohesion and institutional control rather than fractures that could enable a rapid internal challenge, consistent with the 91.5 percent implied probability that no such attempt will materialize in the resolution window.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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