Mojtaba Khamenei’s March 2026 election as Supreme Leader by the Assembly of Experts, following his father Ali Khamenei’s assassination in late February U.S.-Israeli strikes, established institutional continuity that shapes current trader consensus on leadership stability. His complete absence from public view since March, amid reports of injury and collective governance by an interim council including President Masoud Pezeshkian, Judiciary Chief Gholamhossein Mohseni-Ejei, and IRGC figures, has introduced uncertainty without triggering confirmed removal or resignation. Ongoing military exchanges and diplomatic efforts through late 2026 reinforce barriers to near-term change, while longer resolution windows through 2027 incorporate risks from health developments, internal factional pressure, or further escalation.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено$25,937,699 Обс.
Aug 31, 2026
September 30
1%
October 31
5%
November 30
8%
31 грудня
16%
June 30, 2027
26%
$25,937,699 Обс.
September 30
$1,538,808 Обс.
1%
October 31
$121,535 Обс.
5%
November 30
$47,893 Обс.
8%
31 грудня
$4,618,439 Обс.
16%
June 30, 2027
$323,887 Обс.
26%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Mojtaba Khamenei’s March 2026 election as Supreme Leader by the Assembly of Experts, following his father Ali Khamenei’s assassination in late February U.S.-Israeli strikes, established institutional continuity that shapes current trader consensus on leadership stability. His complete absence from public view since March, amid reports of injury and collective governance by an interim council including President Masoud Pezeshkian, Judiciary Chief Gholamhossein Mohseni-Ejei, and IRGC figures, has introduced uncertainty without triggering confirmed removal or resignation. Ongoing military exchanges and diplomatic efforts through late 2026 reinforce barriers to near-term change, while longer resolution windows through 2027 incorporate risks from health developments, internal factional pressure, or further escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Jul 21, 2026, 11:05 AM ET
Обсяг
$25,937,699Дата завершення
Jul 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Jul 21, 2026, 11:05 AM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Mojtaba Khamenei’s March 2026 election as Supreme Leader by the Assembly of Experts, following his father Ali Khamenei’s assassination in late February U.S.-Israeli strikes, established institutional continuity that shapes current trader consensus on leadership stability. His complete absence from public view since March, amid reports of injury and collective governance by an interim council including President Masoud Pezeshkian, Judiciary Chief Gholamhossein Mohseni-Ejei, and IRGC figures, has introduced uncertainty without triggering confirmed removal or resignation. Ongoing military exchanges and diplomatic efforts through late 2026 reinforce barriers to near-term change, while longer resolution windows through 2027 incorporate risks from health developments, internal factional pressure, or further escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$25,937,699Дата завершення
Jul 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Jul 21, 2026, 11:05 AM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
Mojtaba Khamenei’s March 2026 election as Supreme Leader by the Assembly of Experts, following his father Ali Khamenei’s assassination in late February U.S.-Israeli strikes, established institutional continuity that shapes current trader consensus on leadership stability. His complete absence from public view since March, amid reports of injury and collective governance by an interim council including President Masoud Pezeshkian, Judiciary Chief Gholamhossein Mohseni-Ejei, and IRGC figures, has introduced uncertainty without triggering confirmed removal or resignation. Ongoing military exchanges and diplomatic efforts through late 2026 reinforce barriers to near-term change, while longer resolution windows through 2027 incorporate risks from health developments, internal factional pressure, or further escalation.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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