Israel's airspace has stayed open since multiple temporary closures earlier in 2026 tied to US-Israeli strikes on Iran and subsequent missile-drone exchanges. The most recent catalyst remains July 2026 renewed military activity around the Strait of Hormuz after the ceasefire breakdown, prompting an EASA advisory urging caution in the Tel Aviv FIR through late August. Traders weigh ongoing proxy risks from Hezbollah and other groups against the pattern of rapid reopenings once immediate threats subside, with authorities monitoring developments at Ben-Gurion Airport. Elevated regulatory warnings and partial airline avoidance reflect persistent volatility, though no major new closure has occurred in the past month. Scheduled diplomatic or military moves in the coming weeks could still shift assessments.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено$27,128,345 Обс.
Jul 15, 2026
August 31
3%
$27,128,345 Обс.
August 31
$1,096,465 Обс.
3%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Israel's airspace has stayed open since multiple temporary closures earlier in 2026 tied to US-Israeli strikes on Iran and subsequent missile-drone exchanges. The most recent catalyst remains July 2026 renewed military activity around the Strait of Hormuz after the ceasefire breakdown, prompting an EASA advisory urging caution in the Tel Aviv FIR through late August. Traders weigh ongoing proxy risks from Hezbollah and other groups against the pattern of rapid reopenings once immediate threats subside, with authorities monitoring developments at Ben-Gurion Airport. Elevated regulatory warnings and partial airline avoidance reflect persistent volatility, though no major new closure has occurred in the past month. Scheduled diplomatic or military moves in the coming weeks could still shift assessments.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Jun 29, 2026, 10:46 AM ET
Обсяг
$27,128,345Дата завершення
May 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jun 29, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Israel's airspace has stayed open since multiple temporary closures earlier in 2026 tied to US-Israeli strikes on Iran and subsequent missile-drone exchanges. The most recent catalyst remains July 2026 renewed military activity around the Strait of Hormuz after the ceasefire breakdown, prompting an EASA advisory urging caution in the Tel Aviv FIR through late August. Traders weigh ongoing proxy risks from Hezbollah and other groups against the pattern of rapid reopenings once immediate threats subside, with authorities monitoring developments at Ben-Gurion Airport. Elevated regulatory warnings and partial airline avoidance reflect persistent volatility, though no major new closure has occurred in the past month. Scheduled diplomatic or military moves in the coming weeks could still shift assessments.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$27,128,345Дата завершення
May 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jun 29, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Israel's airspace has stayed open since multiple temporary closures earlier in 2026 tied to US-Israeli strikes on Iran and subsequent missile-drone exchanges. The most recent catalyst remains July 2026 renewed military activity around the Strait of Hormuz after the ceasefire breakdown, prompting an EASA advisory urging caution in the Tel Aviv FIR through late August. Traders weigh ongoing proxy risks from Hezbollah and other groups against the pattern of rapid reopenings once immediate threats subside, with authorities monitoring developments at Ben-Gurion Airport. Elevated regulatory warnings and partial airline avoidance reflect persistent volatility, though no major new closure has occurred in the past month. Scheduled diplomatic or military moves in the coming weeks could still shift assessments.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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