Escalation in the Israel-Iran conflict, including joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian targets beginning February 28, 2026, and subsequent Iranian missile and drone retaliation, triggered Israel's immediate closure of its Tel Aviv FIR to most civilian traffic. Regional airspace restrictions across multiple Middle Eastern FIRs have persisted amid periodic renewed exchanges, with Israeli authorities implementing limited phased reopenings subject to security assessments while maintaining one-per-hour movement caps at Ben Gurion Airport. Recent June 2026 flare-ups prompted further Iranian airspace adjustments and EASA advisories extending cautionary guidance through late June. Trader views on closure timing reflect these military-diplomatic developments, procedural NOTAMs, and ongoing risk evaluations by the Israeli Ministry of Transport and aviation authorities.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено$15,538,290 Обс.
Jun 15, 2026
June 14
5%
June 15
8%
June 30
16%
$15,538,290 Обс.
June 14
$501,091 Обс.
5%
June 15
$5,178,231 Обс.
8%
June 30
$2,195,458 Обс.
16%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Escalation in the Israel-Iran conflict, including joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian targets beginning February 28, 2026, and subsequent Iranian missile and drone retaliation, triggered Israel's immediate closure of its Tel Aviv FIR to most civilian traffic. Regional airspace restrictions across multiple Middle Eastern FIRs have persisted amid periodic renewed exchanges, with Israeli authorities implementing limited phased reopenings subject to security assessments while maintaining one-per-hour movement caps at Ben Gurion Airport. Recent June 2026 flare-ups prompted further Iranian airspace adjustments and EASA advisories extending cautionary guidance through late June. Trader views on closure timing reflect these military-diplomatic developments, procedural NOTAMs, and ongoing risk evaluations by the Israeli Ministry of Transport and aviation authorities.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: May 18, 2026, 6:48 PM ET
Обсяг
$15,538,290Дата завершення
May 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 18, 2026, 6:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Escalation in the Israel-Iran conflict, including joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian targets beginning February 28, 2026, and subsequent Iranian missile and drone retaliation, triggered Israel's immediate closure of its Tel Aviv FIR to most civilian traffic. Regional airspace restrictions across multiple Middle Eastern FIRs have persisted amid periodic renewed exchanges, with Israeli authorities implementing limited phased reopenings subject to security assessments while maintaining one-per-hour movement caps at Ben Gurion Airport. Recent June 2026 flare-ups prompted further Iranian airspace adjustments and EASA advisories extending cautionary guidance through late June. Trader views on closure timing reflect these military-diplomatic developments, procedural NOTAMs, and ongoing risk evaluations by the Israeli Ministry of Transport and aviation authorities.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$15,538,290Дата завершення
May 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 18, 2026, 6:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Escalation in the Israel-Iran conflict, including joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian targets beginning February 28, 2026, and subsequent Iranian missile and drone retaliation, triggered Israel's immediate closure of its Tel Aviv FIR to most civilian traffic. Regional airspace restrictions across multiple Middle Eastern FIRs have persisted amid periodic renewed exchanges, with Israeli authorities implementing limited phased reopenings subject to security assessments while maintaining one-per-hour movement caps at Ben Gurion Airport. Recent June 2026 flare-ups prompted further Iranian airspace adjustments and EASA advisories extending cautionary guidance through late June. Trader views on closure timing reflect these military-diplomatic developments, procedural NOTAMs, and ongoing risk evaluations by the Israeli Ministry of Transport and aviation authorities.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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