Direct US-brokered negotiations between Israel and Lebanon, opened in April 2026 following the April 16 cessation of hostilities, remain the central driver of prospects for a permanent peace agreement that would address Hezbollah disarmament, border demarcation, and mutual security guarantees. The talks produced a 45-day ceasefire extension announced May 15 that runs through late June, with additional political meetings scheduled for early June and a separate military track set to begin at the Pentagon on May 29. Israeli officials have emphasized full dismantling of Hezbollah infrastructure south of the Litani River and preservation of self-defense rights, while Lebanese representatives have stressed territorial sovereignty, withdrawal timelines, and reconstruction needs. These diplomatic steps follow months of intense fighting that resumed in March 2026 and build on earlier understandings tied to UN Security Council Resolution 1701. The current framework leaves open the possibility of a comprehensive deal within the extended window, though implementation hinges on sustained compliance and resolution of core security and territorial issues.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоIsrael x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by...?
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by...?
$175,746 Обс.
May 31, 2026
May 31
2%
$175,746 Обс.
May 31
$98,664 Обс.
2%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Hezbollah agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Direct US-brokered negotiations between Israel and Lebanon, opened in April 2026 following the April 16 cessation of hostilities, remain the central driver of prospects for a permanent peace agreement that would address Hezbollah disarmament, border demarcation, and mutual security guarantees. The talks produced a 45-day ceasefire extension announced May 15 that runs through late June, with additional political meetings scheduled for early June and a separate military track set to begin at the Pentagon on May 29. Israeli officials have emphasized full dismantling of Hezbollah infrastructure south of the Litani River and preservation of self-defense rights, while Lebanese representatives have stressed territorial sovereignty, withdrawal timelines, and reconstruction needs. These diplomatic steps follow months of intense fighting that resumed in March 2026 and build on earlier understandings tied to UN Security Council Resolution 1701. The current framework leaves open the possibility of a comprehensive deal within the extended window, though implementation hinges on sustained compliance and resolution of core security and territorial issues.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Hezbollah agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Apr 16, 2026, 7:48 PM ET
Обсяг
$175,746Дата завершення
May 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 16, 2026, 7:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Hezbollah agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Direct US-brokered negotiations between Israel and Lebanon, opened in April 2026 following the April 16 cessation of hostilities, remain the central driver of prospects for a permanent peace agreement that would address Hezbollah disarmament, border demarcation, and mutual security guarantees. The talks produced a 45-day ceasefire extension announced May 15 that runs through late June, with additional political meetings scheduled for early June and a separate military track set to begin at the Pentagon on May 29. Israeli officials have emphasized full dismantling of Hezbollah infrastructure south of the Litani River and preservation of self-defense rights, while Lebanese representatives have stressed territorial sovereignty, withdrawal timelines, and reconstruction needs. These diplomatic steps follow months of intense fighting that resumed in March 2026 and build on earlier understandings tied to UN Security Council Resolution 1701. The current framework leaves open the possibility of a comprehensive deal within the extended window, though implementation hinges on sustained compliance and resolution of core security and territorial issues.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Hezbollah agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$175,746Дата завершення
May 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 16, 2026, 7:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Direct US-brokered negotiations between Israel and Lebanon, opened in April 2026 following the April 16 cessation of hostilities, remain the central driver of prospects for a permanent peace agreement that would address Hezbollah disarmament, border demarcation, and mutual security guarantees. The talks produced a 45-day ceasefire extension announced May 15 that runs through late June, with additional political meetings scheduled for early June and a separate military track set to begin at the Pentagon on May 29. Israeli officials have emphasized full dismantling of Hezbollah infrastructure south of the Litani River and preservation of self-defense rights, while Lebanese representatives have stressed territorial sovereignty, withdrawal timelines, and reconstruction needs. These diplomatic steps follow months of intense fighting that resumed in March 2026 and build on earlier understandings tied to UN Security Council Resolution 1701. The current framework leaves open the possibility of a comprehensive deal within the extended window, though implementation hinges on sustained compliance and resolution of core security and territorial issues.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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