Forecast models from sources including the China Meteorological Administration and international ensembles indicate a minimum temperature near 26–28°C for Chongqing on August 24, driven by persistent subtropical high pressure, light southerly winds, and 60–70% thunderstorm coverage that limits nocturnal radiative cooling. Recent days have featured overnight lows of 26–29°C amid highs of 35–38°C, with no significant cold advection or clear-sky radiative event expected before resolution. This consensus places the outcome near the 27°C and 26°C bins while explaining elevated trader probabilities on both 29°C+ and sub-20°C extremes, reflecting residual model spread in boundary-layer moisture and cloud timing. Updated runs from the National Meteorological Center and regional stations will provide the decisive observational data.