Current numerical weather prediction models indicate overnight lows in Chongqing on August 26 will likely settle in the 26–29°C range, supporting the closely matched market-implied odds near those thresholds. Persistent summer heat, high humidity, and limited nocturnal radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies with possible scattered showers or thunderstorms are the dominant factors, as regional high pressure and weak steering winds suppress stronger temperature drops. Model spread arises from differences in simulated convective timing and local urban heat retention, with some ensembles showing slightly cooler outcomes if overnight cloud cover increases. Official updates from the China Meteorological Administration and fresh global model runs over the next 48 hours will provide the key data shifts ahead of resolution.