**Forecast model divergence on a strengthening northerly flow and associated showers is driving the near-even split between the 10°C-or-below and 20°C-or-higher outcomes for Istanbul’s September 22 minimum.** Recent model runs show a cold front arriving overnight, with northerly winds of 15–30 km/h and light-to-moderate rain expected to enhance evaporative and advective cooling after daytime highs near 21–22 °C. However, differences in the timing of the frontal passage, cloud cover, and wind speeds create realistic scenarios for overnight lows ranging from the mid-teens down to single digits or remaining above 18 °C. Official guidance from regional meteorological services highlights this uncertainty range, with new model updates and observational data expected within the next 12–24 hours that could shift the market-implied probabilities.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLowest temperature in Istanbul on September 22?
Lowest temperature in Istanbul on September 22?
10°C or below 100%
20°C or higher 98%
13°C 40%
14°C 40%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 22, 2026
10°C or below
100%
11°C
18%
12°C
18%
13°C
40%
14°C
40%
15°C
40%
16°C
40%
17°C
40%
18°C
40%
19°C
19%
20°C or higher
98%
10°C or below 100%
20°C or higher 98%
13°C 40%
14°C 40%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 22, 2026
10°C or below
$0 Обс.
100%
11°C
$0 Обс.
18%
12°C
$0 Обс.
18%
13°C
$0 Обс.
40%
14°C
$0 Обс.
40%
15°C
$0 Обс.
40%
16°C
$0 Обс.
40%
17°C
$0 Обс.
40%
18°C
$0 Обс.
40%
19°C
$0 Обс.
19%
20°C or higher
$0 Обс.
98%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast model divergence on a strengthening northerly flow and associated showers is driving the near-even split between the 10°C-or-below and 20°C-or-higher outcomes for Istanbul’s September 22 minimum.**
Recent model runs show a cold front arriving overnight, with northerly winds of 15–30 km/h and light-to-moderate rain expected to enhance evaporative and advective cooling after daytime highs near 21–22 °C. However, differences in the timing of the frontal passage, cloud cover, and wind speeds create realistic scenarios for overnight lows ranging from the mid-teens down to single digits or remaining above 18 °C. Official guidance from regional meteorological services highlights this uncertainty range, with new model updates and observational data expected within the next 12–24 hours that could shift the market-implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 20, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Обсяг
$0Дата завершення
Sep 22, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 20, 2026, 12:31 AM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast model divergence on a strengthening northerly flow and associated showers is driving the near-even split between the 10°C-or-below and 20°C-or-higher outcomes for Istanbul’s September 22 minimum.**
Recent model runs show a cold front arriving overnight, with northerly winds of 15–30 km/h and light-to-moderate rain expected to enhance evaporative and advective cooling after daytime highs near 21–22 °C. However, differences in the timing of the frontal passage, cloud cover, and wind speeds create realistic scenarios for overnight lows ranging from the mid-teens down to single digits or remaining above 18 °C. Official guidance from regional meteorological services highlights this uncertainty range, with new model updates and observational data expected within the next 12–24 hours that could shift the market-implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$0Дата завершення
Sep 22, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 20, 2026, 12:31 AM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast model divergence on a strengthening northerly flow and associated showers is driving the near-even split between the 10°C-or-below and 20°C-or-higher outcomes for Istanbul’s September 22 minimum.** Recent model runs show a cold front arriving overnight, with northerly winds of 15–30 km/h and light-to-moderate rain expected to enhance evaporative and advective cooling after daytime highs near 21–22 °C. However, differences in the timing of the frontal passage, cloud cover, and wind speeds create realistic scenarios for overnight lows ranging from the mid-teens down to single digits or remaining above 18 °C. Official guidance from regional meteorological services highlights this uncertainty range, with new model updates and observational data expected within the next 12–24 hours that could shift the market-implied probabilities.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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