Forecast uncertainty in Pacific Northwest numerical weather models is the main driver behind the near-even split between 82°F-or-higher and 63°F-or-below outcomes for Seattle’s September 20 high. Ensemble guidance shows notable spread in the position and timing of an approaching upper-level trough versus warmer southwesterly flow, with differences in how quickly marine air is displaced or reinforced. Historical September variability, including occasional late-season heat waves or early cool outbreaks tied to jet-stream shifts, adds to the dispersion. Traders are weighting the possibility of model consensus shifts in the next 48 hours, when higher-resolution runs and observational updates from NOAA will narrow the range ahead of the market’s resolution on daily maximum temperature.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Seattle on September 20?
Highest temperature in Seattle on September 20?
68-69°F 40%
70-71°F 23%
72-73°F 20%
78-79°F 10%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 20, 2026
63°F or below
3%
64-65°F
4%
66-67°F
8%
68-69°F
34%
70-71°F
23%
72-73°F
20%
74-75°F
9%
76-77°F
9%
78-79°F
10%
80-81°F
6%
82°F or higher
5%
68-69°F 40%
70-71°F 23%
72-73°F 20%
78-79°F 10%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 20, 2026
63°F or below
$0 Обс.
3%
64-65°F
$0 Обс.
4%
66-67°F
$0 Обс.
8%
68-69°F
$33 Обс.
34%
70-71°F
$0 Обс.
23%
72-73°F
$0 Обс.
20%
74-75°F
$0 Обс.
9%
76-77°F
$0 Обс.
9%
78-79°F
$10 Обс.
10%
80-81°F
$10 Обс.
6%
82°F or higher
$10 Обс.
5%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksea
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast uncertainty in Pacific Northwest numerical weather models is the main driver behind the near-even split between 82°F-or-higher and 63°F-or-below outcomes for Seattle’s September 20 high. Ensemble guidance shows notable spread in the position and timing of an approaching upper-level trough versus warmer southwesterly flow, with differences in how quickly marine air is displaced or reinforced. Historical September variability, including occasional late-season heat waves or early cool outbreaks tied to jet-stream shifts, adds to the dispersion. Traders are weighting the possibility of model consensus shifts in the next 48 hours, when higher-resolution runs and observational updates from NOAA will narrow the range ahead of the market’s resolution on daily maximum temperature.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksea
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksea
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 18, 2026, 7:55 AM ET
Обсяг
$63Дата завершення
Sep 20, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 18, 2026, 7:55 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kseaВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksea
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast uncertainty in Pacific Northwest numerical weather models is the main driver behind the near-even split between 82°F-or-higher and 63°F-or-below outcomes for Seattle’s September 20 high. Ensemble guidance shows notable spread in the position and timing of an approaching upper-level trough versus warmer southwesterly flow, with differences in how quickly marine air is displaced or reinforced. Historical September variability, including occasional late-season heat waves or early cool outbreaks tied to jet-stream shifts, adds to the dispersion. Traders are weighting the possibility of model consensus shifts in the next 48 hours, when higher-resolution runs and observational updates from NOAA will narrow the range ahead of the market’s resolution on daily maximum temperature.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksea
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksea
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$63Дата завершення
Sep 20, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 18, 2026, 7:55 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kseaВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Forecast uncertainty in Pacific Northwest numerical weather models is the main driver behind the near-even split between 82°F-or-higher and 63°F-or-below outcomes for Seattle’s September 20 high. Ensemble guidance shows notable spread in the position and timing of an approaching upper-level trough versus warmer southwesterly flow, with differences in how quickly marine air is displaced or reinforced. Historical September variability, including occasional late-season heat waves or early cool outbreaks tied to jet-stream shifts, adds to the dispersion. Traders are weighting the possibility of model consensus shifts in the next 48 hours, when higher-resolution runs and observational updates from NOAA will narrow the range ahead of the market’s resolution on daily maximum temperature.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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