U.S. forces captured Nicolás Maduro in Caracas on January 3, 2026, and transferred him to face federal charges in the Southern District of New York for narco-terrorism conspiracy and cocaine importation, offenses that carry mandatory minimum sentences of 20 years up to life. Traders assign the highest probability to 60 or more years at 34.5 percent because the indictment details extensive allegations involving Venezuelan state resources and designated foreign terrorist organizations, yet the 20–40 year and no-prison-time outcomes remain competitive at 25.4 percent and 23.5 percent amid ongoing pretrial motions over defense funding, potential diplomatic interventions, and the possibility of a plea agreement before a 2026 trial. These factors sustain tight spreads across the main sentencing brackets while shorter terms lag due to the charge structure.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено60+ 35%
Без тюремного ув'язнення 24%
20–40 20.5%
40–60 9%
$527,363 Обс.
$527,363 Обс.
Dec 31, 2027
Без тюремного ув'язнення
24%
<20
5%
20–40
25%
40–60
9%
60+
35%
60+ 35%
Без тюремного ув'язнення 24%
20–40 20.5%
40–60 9%
$527,363 Обс.
$527,363 Обс.
Dec 31, 2027
Без тюремного ув'язнення
$373,715 Обс.
24%
<20
$57,382 Обс.
5%
20–40
$48,103 Обс.
25%
40–60
$15,913 Обс.
9%
60+
$32,250 Обс.
35%
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.U.S. forces captured Nicolás Maduro in Caracas on January 3, 2026, and transferred him to face federal charges in the Southern District of New York for narco-terrorism conspiracy and cocaine importation, offenses that carry mandatory minimum sentences of 20 years up to life. Traders assign the highest probability to 60 or more years at 34.5 percent because the indictment details extensive allegations involving Venezuelan state resources and designated foreign terrorist organizations, yet the 20–40 year and no-prison-time outcomes remain competitive at 25.4 percent and 23.5 percent amid ongoing pretrial motions over defense funding, potential diplomatic interventions, and the possibility of a plea agreement before a 2026 trial. These factors sustain tight spreads across the main sentencing brackets while shorter terms lag due to the charge structure.
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Jan 4, 2026, 12:29 PM ET
Обсяг
$527,363Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2027Ринок відкрито
Jan 4, 2026, 12:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.U.S. forces captured Nicolás Maduro in Caracas on January 3, 2026, and transferred him to face federal charges in the Southern District of New York for narco-terrorism conspiracy and cocaine importation, offenses that carry mandatory minimum sentences of 20 years up to life. Traders assign the highest probability to 60 or more years at 34.5 percent because the indictment details extensive allegations involving Venezuelan state resources and designated foreign terrorist organizations, yet the 20–40 year and no-prison-time outcomes remain competitive at 25.4 percent and 23.5 percent amid ongoing pretrial motions over defense funding, potential diplomatic interventions, and the possibility of a plea agreement before a 2026 trial. These factors sustain tight spreads across the main sentencing brackets while shorter terms lag due to the charge structure.
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$527,363Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2027Ринок відкрито
Jan 4, 2026, 12:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...U.S. forces captured Nicolás Maduro in Caracas on January 3, 2026, and transferred him to face federal charges in the Southern District of New York for narco-terrorism conspiracy and cocaine importation, offenses that carry mandatory minimum sentences of 20 years up to life. Traders assign the highest probability to 60 or more years at 34.5 percent because the indictment details extensive allegations involving Venezuelan state resources and designated foreign terrorist organizations, yet the 20–40 year and no-prison-time outcomes remain competitive at 25.4 percent and 23.5 percent amid ongoing pretrial motions over defense funding, potential diplomatic interventions, and the possibility of a plea agreement before a 2026 trial. These factors sustain tight spreads across the main sentencing brackets while shorter terms lag due to the charge structure.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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