The market's 92.4% implied probability of no VEI ≥6 eruption in 2026 stems primarily from the low historical frequency of such colossal events, with return periods averaging 50–100 years for VEI 6 and roughly 1,000 years for VEI 7 based on Holocene records from databases like LaMEVE and the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program. Current USGS and international monitoring of systems such as Kīlauea (ongoing effusive activity) and other unrest sites reveals no precursors like rapid caldera inflation or widespread seismic swarms that would signal an imminent Plinian or ultra-Plinian event capable of ejecting ≥10 km³ of material. While sudden escalation at large calderas remains possible given inherent uncertainties in magma dynamics, the absence of elevated global alerts supports trader consensus on rarity for this single year.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоMajor volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
8% шанс
$146,806 Обс.
$146,806 Обс.
Mar 30, 2027
8% шанс
$146,806 Обс.
$146,806 Обс.
Mar 30, 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.The market's 92.4% implied probability of no VEI ≥6 eruption in 2026 stems primarily from the low historical frequency of such colossal events, with return periods averaging 50–100 years for VEI 6 and roughly 1,000 years for VEI 7 based on Holocene records from databases like LaMEVE and the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program. Current USGS and international monitoring of systems such as Kīlauea (ongoing effusive activity) and other unrest sites reveals no precursors like rapid caldera inflation or widespread seismic swarms that would signal an imminent Plinian or ultra-Plinian event capable of ejecting ≥10 km³ of material. While sudden escalation at large calderas remains possible given inherent uncertainties in magma dynamics, the absence of elevated global alerts supports trader consensus on rarity for this single year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
Обсяг
$146,806Дата завершення
Mar 31, 2027Ринок відкрито
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.The market's 92.4% implied probability of no VEI ≥6 eruption in 2026 stems primarily from the low historical frequency of such colossal events, with return periods averaging 50–100 years for VEI 6 and roughly 1,000 years for VEI 7 based on Holocene records from databases like LaMEVE and the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program. Current USGS and international monitoring of systems such as Kīlauea (ongoing effusive activity) and other unrest sites reveals no precursors like rapid caldera inflation or widespread seismic swarms that would signal an imminent Plinian or ultra-Plinian event capable of ejecting ≥10 km³ of material. While sudden escalation at large calderas remains possible given inherent uncertainties in magma dynamics, the absence of elevated global alerts supports trader consensus on rarity for this single year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Обсяг
$146,806Дата завершення
Mar 31, 2027Ринок відкрито
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...The market's 92.4% implied probability of no VEI ≥6 eruption in 2026 stems primarily from the low historical frequency of such colossal events, with return periods averaging 50–100 years for VEI 6 and roughly 1,000 years for VEI 7 based on Holocene records from databases like LaMEVE and the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program. Current USGS and international monitoring of systems such as Kīlauea (ongoing effusive activity) and other unrest sites reveals no precursors like rapid caldera inflation or widespread seismic swarms that would signal an imminent Plinian or ultra-Plinian event capable of ejecting ≥10 km³ of material. While sudden escalation at large calderas remains possible given inherent uncertainties in magma dynamics, the absence of elevated global alerts supports trader consensus on rarity for this single year.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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