Recent low winter maximum sea ice extent, combined with above-average Arctic surface temperatures and early melt onset in marginal seas, drives trader consensus toward a September minimum between 4.2–4.6 million square kilometers. Persistent thin ice from prior seasons and regional contrasts—stronger melt on the Atlantic side versus slower retreat in the Pacific—create uncertainty around exact outcomes. NSIDC and JAXA observations through early August show extents tracking near or below 2025 levels, while model projections from spring place the likely minimum near 4.5 million square kilometers. Key variables include late-summer air and ocean temperatures plus wind patterns that could accelerate or slow final melt. Updated forecasts and satellite data releases through September will refine these probabilities as conditions evolve.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоMin Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
4.2-4.4m sq km 29.6%
4.4-4.6m sq km 26.9%
4.6-4.8m sq km 17.5%
<4m sq km 14%
$66,070 Обс.
$66,070 Обс.
Oct 1, 2026
<4m sq km
14%
4.0-4.2m sq km
12%
4.2-4.4m sq km
30%
4.4-4.6m sq km
27%
4.6-4.8m sq km
18%
4.8-5m sq km
3%
5m+ sq km
7%
4.2-4.4m sq km 29.6%
4.4-4.6m sq km 26.9%
4.6-4.8m sq km 17.5%
<4m sq km 14%
$66,070 Обс.
$66,070 Обс.
Oct 1, 2026
<4m sq km
$30,155 Обс.
14%
4.0-4.2m sq km
$6,417 Обс.
12%
4.2-4.4m sq km
$2,755 Обс.
30%
4.4-4.6m sq km
$3,025 Обс.
27%
4.6-4.8m sq km
$6,583 Обс.
18%
4.8-5m sq km
$2,778 Обс.
3%
5m+ sq km
$14,356 Обс.
7%
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Recent low winter maximum sea ice extent, combined with above-average Arctic surface temperatures and early melt onset in marginal seas, drives trader consensus toward a September minimum between 4.2–4.6 million square kilometers. Persistent thin ice from prior seasons and regional contrasts—stronger melt on the Atlantic side versus slower retreat in the Pacific—create uncertainty around exact outcomes. NSIDC and JAXA observations through early August show extents tracking near or below 2025 levels, while model projections from spring place the likely minimum near 4.5 million square kilometers. Key variables include late-summer air and ocean temperatures plus wind patterns that could accelerate or slow final melt. Updated forecasts and satellite data releases through September will refine these probabilities as conditions evolve.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Ринок відкрито: Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
Обсяг
$66,070Дата завершення
Oct 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Recent low winter maximum sea ice extent, combined with above-average Arctic surface temperatures and early melt onset in marginal seas, drives trader consensus toward a September minimum between 4.2–4.6 million square kilometers. Persistent thin ice from prior seasons and regional contrasts—stronger melt on the Atlantic side versus slower retreat in the Pacific—create uncertainty around exact outcomes. NSIDC and JAXA observations through early August show extents tracking near or below 2025 levels, while model projections from spring place the likely minimum near 4.5 million square kilometers. Key variables include late-summer air and ocean temperatures plus wind patterns that could accelerate or slow final melt. Updated forecasts and satellite data releases through September will refine these probabilities as conditions evolve.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Обсяг
$66,070Дата завершення
Oct 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent low winter maximum sea ice extent, combined with above-average Arctic surface temperatures and early melt onset in marginal seas, drives trader consensus toward a September minimum between 4.2–4.6 million square kilometers. Persistent thin ice from prior seasons and regional contrasts—stronger melt on the Atlantic side versus slower retreat in the Pacific—create uncertainty around exact outcomes. NSIDC and JAXA observations through early August show extents tracking near or below 2025 levels, while model projections from spring place the likely minimum near 4.5 million square kilometers. Key variables include late-summer air and ocean temperatures plus wind patterns that could accelerate or slow final melt. Updated forecasts and satellite data releases through September will refine these probabilities as conditions evolve.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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