Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 72.5% probability of no qualifying natural disaster in 2026, driven by the absence of any Category 5 hurricane U.S. landfall (per NOAA/NHC Saffir-Simpson scale), magnitude 8.5+ earthquake (USGS), VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption (Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program), or 10-kiloton+ meteor airburst (NASA CNEOS) through mid-May. The largest 2026 quakes peaked at M7.4 in Japan and Indonesia in April, 47 volcanoes erupted at lower VEI levels, and March fireballs over Ohio/Texas fell below 10kt thresholds. Ahead of the June 1 Atlantic hurricane season start, Colorado State University forecasts below-normal activity amid an 82% chance of El Niño development by summer, suppressing intensification risks; NOAA's full outlook releases May 21. Seismic and volcanic monitoring continues amid inherent forecasting uncertainties.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоNatural Disaster in 2026?
Natural Disaster in 2026?
$218,211 Обс.
$218,211 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
$218,211 Обс.
$218,211 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 72.5% probability of no qualifying natural disaster in 2026, driven by the absence of any Category 5 hurricane U.S. landfall (per NOAA/NHC Saffir-Simpson scale), magnitude 8.5+ earthquake (USGS), VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption (Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program), or 10-kiloton+ meteor airburst (NASA CNEOS) through mid-May. The largest 2026 quakes peaked at M7.4 in Japan and Indonesia in April, 47 volcanoes erupted at lower VEI levels, and March fireballs over Ohio/Texas fell below 10kt thresholds. Ahead of the June 1 Atlantic hurricane season start, Colorado State University forecasts below-normal activity amid an 82% chance of El Niño development by summer, suppressing intensification risks; NOAA's full outlook releases May 21. Seismic and volcanic monitoring continues amid inherent forecasting uncertainties.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Ринок відкрито: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Обсяг
$218,211Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 72.5% probability of no qualifying natural disaster in 2026, driven by the absence of any Category 5 hurricane U.S. landfall (per NOAA/NHC Saffir-Simpson scale), magnitude 8.5+ earthquake (USGS), VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption (Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program), or 10-kiloton+ meteor airburst (NASA CNEOS) through mid-May. The largest 2026 quakes peaked at M7.4 in Japan and Indonesia in April, 47 volcanoes erupted at lower VEI levels, and March fireballs over Ohio/Texas fell below 10kt thresholds. Ahead of the June 1 Atlantic hurricane season start, Colorado State University forecasts below-normal activity amid an 82% chance of El Niño development by summer, suppressing intensification risks; NOAA's full outlook releases May 21. Seismic and volcanic monitoring continues amid inherent forecasting uncertainties.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Обсяг
$218,211Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 72.5% probability of no qualifying natural disaster in 2026, driven by the absence of any Category 5 hurricane U.S. landfall (per NOAA/NHC Saffir-Simpson scale), magnitude 8.5+ earthquake (USGS), VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption (Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program), or 10-kiloton+ meteor airburst (NASA CNEOS) through mid-May. The largest 2026 quakes peaked at M7.4 in Japan and Indonesia in April, 47 volcanoes erupted at lower VEI levels, and March fireballs over Ohio/Texas fell below 10kt thresholds. Ahead of the June 1 Atlantic hurricane season start, Colorado State University forecasts below-normal activity amid an 82% chance of El Niño development by summer, suppressing intensification risks; NOAA's full outlook releases May 21. Seismic and volcanic monitoring continues amid inherent forecasting uncertainties.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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