Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 67.5% implied probability for "Yes"—no specified disruptions through December 31, 2026—reflecting five trigger-free months since January, with President Trump secure in office, Bitcoin stable near $80,000, and no regime changes or invasions. Recent de-escalations drove this positioning: a May 9 Ukraine Victory Day truce reduced Russia-NATO invasion risks, while U.S. airstrikes on Iranian Hormuz targets stopped short of full invasion criteria. No major earthquakes, VEI 6+ eruptions, or meteor strikes occurred, Jeffrey Epstein remains absent, and Greenland acquisition off the table. Lingering uncertainties include today's Trump-Xi summit on Taiwan tensions and November midterms, where a Republican trifecta with Senate supermajority could flip odds despite historical incumbent midterm losses.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоНічого ніколи не трапляється: 2026 рік
Нічого ніколи не трапляється: 2026 рік
Так
$557,194 Обс.
$557,194 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
Так
$557,194 Обс.
$557,194 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfTrader consensus on Polymarket prices a 67.5% implied probability for "Yes"—no specified disruptions through December 31, 2026—reflecting five trigger-free months since January, with President Trump secure in office, Bitcoin stable near $80,000, and no regime changes or invasions. Recent de-escalations drove this positioning: a May 9 Ukraine Victory Day truce reduced Russia-NATO invasion risks, while U.S. airstrikes on Iranian Hormuz targets stopped short of full invasion criteria. No major earthquakes, VEI 6+ eruptions, or meteor strikes occurred, Jeffrey Epstein remains absent, and Greenland acquisition off the table. Lingering uncertainties include today's Trump-Xi summit on Taiwan tensions and November midterms, where a Republican trifecta with Senate supermajority could flip odds despite historical incumbent midterm losses.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
Ринок відкрито: Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Обсяг
$557,194Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfTrader consensus on Polymarket prices a 67.5% implied probability for "Yes"—no specified disruptions through December 31, 2026—reflecting five trigger-free months since January, with President Trump secure in office, Bitcoin stable near $80,000, and no regime changes or invasions. Recent de-escalations drove this positioning: a May 9 Ukraine Victory Day truce reduced Russia-NATO invasion risks, while U.S. airstrikes on Iranian Hormuz targets stopped short of full invasion criteria. No major earthquakes, VEI 6+ eruptions, or meteor strikes occurred, Jeffrey Epstein remains absent, and Greenland acquisition off the table. Lingering uncertainties include today's Trump-Xi summit on Taiwan tensions and November midterms, where a Republican trifecta with Senate supermajority could flip odds despite historical incumbent midterm losses.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
Обсяг
$557,194Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 67.5% implied probability for "Yes"—no specified disruptions through December 31, 2026—reflecting five trigger-free months since January, with President Trump secure in office, Bitcoin stable near $80,000, and no regime changes or invasions. Recent de-escalations drove this positioning: a May 9 Ukraine Victory Day truce reduced Russia-NATO invasion risks, while U.S. airstrikes on Iranian Hormuz targets stopped short of full invasion criteria. No major earthquakes, VEI 6+ eruptions, or meteor strikes occurred, Jeffrey Epstein remains absent, and Greenland acquisition off the table. Lingering uncertainties include today's Trump-Xi summit on Taiwan tensions and November midterms, where a Republican trifecta with Senate supermajority could flip odds despite historical incumbent midterm losses.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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