The NY-21 district's R+10 Partisan Voter Index and consistent Republican performance in recent cycles underpin the 71% trader consensus for a Republican victory in the November 2026 general election. Elise Stefanik's decision not to seek re-election after briefly pursuing the governorship created an open seat, prompting a competitive Republican primary between Anthony Constantino and Robert Smullen ahead of the June 23 vote. Democratic primary contenders Stuart Amoriell and Blake Gendebien face structural headwinds in a district rated Solid Republican by Cook Political Report and similar outlets. Recent fundraising reports and primary polling show no developments sufficient to shift the implied probability away from continued GOP control.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоNY-21 House Election Winner
NY-21 House Election Winner
$24,003 Обс.
$24,003 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
87%
Democratic Party
18%
$24,003 Обс.
$24,003 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$14,075 Обс.
87%
Democratic Party
$9,950 Обс.
18%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The NY-21 district's R+10 Partisan Voter Index and consistent Republican performance in recent cycles underpin the 71% trader consensus for a Republican victory in the November 2026 general election. Elise Stefanik's decision not to seek re-election after briefly pursuing the governorship created an open seat, prompting a competitive Republican primary between Anthony Constantino and Robert Smullen ahead of the June 23 vote. Democratic primary contenders Stuart Amoriell and Blake Gendebien face structural headwinds in a district rated Solid Republican by Cook Political Report and similar outlets. Recent fundraising reports and primary polling show no developments sufficient to shift the implied probability away from continued GOP control.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Обсяг
$24,003Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The NY-21 district's R+10 Partisan Voter Index and consistent Republican performance in recent cycles underpin the 71% trader consensus for a Republican victory in the November 2026 general election. Elise Stefanik's decision not to seek re-election after briefly pursuing the governorship created an open seat, prompting a competitive Republican primary between Anthony Constantino and Robert Smullen ahead of the June 23 vote. Democratic primary contenders Stuart Amoriell and Blake Gendebien face structural headwinds in a district rated Solid Republican by Cook Political Report and similar outlets. Recent fundraising reports and primary polling show no developments sufficient to shift the implied probability away from continued GOP control.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$24,003Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The NY-21 district's R+10 Partisan Voter Index and consistent Republican performance in recent cycles underpin the 71% trader consensus for a Republican victory in the November 2026 general election. Elise Stefanik's decision not to seek re-election after briefly pursuing the governorship created an open seat, prompting a competitive Republican primary between Anthony Constantino and Robert Smullen ahead of the June 23 vote. Democratic primary contenders Stuart Amoriell and Blake Gendebien face structural headwinds in a district rated Solid Republican by Cook Political Report and similar outlets. Recent fundraising reports and primary polling show no developments sufficient to shift the implied probability away from continued GOP control.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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