Recent polling averages place Democrat Janelle Stelson slightly ahead of incumbent Republican Scott Perry at 48% to 46% among likely voters across the last three surveys, with Stelson holding a fundraising edge of roughly $9.2 million raised versus $6.8 million. The rematch of their narrow 2024 contest has drawn heavy spending and negative advertising, while a late-October New York Times/Siena poll showed the candidates tied amid elevated disapproval for President Trump in the district. Forecasters have shifted ratings toward Lean or Tilt Democratic, reflecting Stelson’s modest polling consistency and cash advantage heading into the November 3 election. These elements have shaped trader consensus reflected in current pricing, though the contest remains among the closer House races.