Persistent energy price shocks from Middle East tensions have lifted South African headline inflation to 4.4% in August, prompting the SARB to raise its repo rate by a cumulative 50 basis points to 7.25% through September and warn of rising second-round risks in its October Monetary Policy Review. Oil prices near $100 per barrel and higher fuel costs have pushed near-term CPI forecasts above 5%, with the central bank emphasizing the need to anchor expectations around its 3% target amid weak 1.2% GDP growth for 2026. Market-implied odds favor no change at the November 19 meeting, reflecting trader assessment that recent hikes and subdued domestic demand may suffice absent further upside surprises in October CPI or rand weakness, though some analysts still price in an additional 25-basis-point hike.