Trump's position as president through 2026 features a loyal vice president and cabinet drawn from his administration, creating a high institutional barrier to 25th Amendment invocation, which requires majority cabinet support plus congressional affirmation. No verified reports of incapacity, major health events, or internal administration fractures have emerged in recent months to alter this dynamic. Traders assign the 96.5% implied probability to "No" based on these structural protections and historical rarity of successful removals. Even narrow windows before 2027 could see shifts only from unforeseen developments such as acute medical crises or coordinated cabinet action, both of which face steep procedural and political hurdles.