Recent polling from the University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs shows Christian Menefee ahead of Al Green by seven points in the May 26 Democratic primary runoff for Texas’ 18th Congressional District. The contest stems from last summer’s redistricting, which merged the longtime districts of the two sitting Democratic incumbents into a single reliably Democratic seat. Menefee, who won a special election earlier this year to succeed the late Representative Sylvester Turner, holds stronger support among younger voters, white voters, and Latinos according to the survey. Traders have priced this momentum into the current outcome probabilities, with early voting set to begin shortly before the runoff.