Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a nail-biter ahead of the Office for National Statistics' first quarterly estimate for UK Q1 2026 GDP growth, due May 14, with market-implied probabilities nearly even at 50.2% for 0.6-0.9% and 44.2% for 0.9-1.2% quarter-on-quarter. February's blockbuster 0.5% monthly GDP surge—led by a 0.5% services rebound and 1.2% production uptick—lifted expectations from earlier sub-0.5% forecasts like Pantheon's 0.5%, offsetting January's tepid 0.1% print and Q4 2025's stagnation. Key differentiators include March indicators' resilience amid construction weakness, sticky 3.3% March CPI from energy shocks, and Bank Rate steady at 3.75%; a strong services close could tip toward higher bins, while slowdown risks favor the lower.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено0.6-0.9% 50.2%
0.9-1.2% 44.6%
1.2-1.5% 3.5%
0.3-0.6% 2.5%
$36,338 Обс.
$36,338 Обс.
May 14, 2026
Negative
<1%
0.0-0.3%
1%
0.3-0.6%
3%
0.6-0.9%
50%
0.9-1.2%
45%
1.2-1.5%
3%
1.5-1.8%
<1%
1.8%+
<1%
0.6-0.9% 50.2%
0.9-1.2% 44.6%
1.2-1.5% 3.5%
0.3-0.6% 2.5%
$36,338 Обс.
$36,338 Обс.
May 14, 2026
Negative
$6,721 Обс.
<1%
0.0-0.3%
$10,989 Обс.
1%
0.3-0.6%
$2,441 Обс.
3%
0.6-0.9%
$8,184 Обс.
50%
0.9-1.2%
$1,392 Обс.
45%
1.2-1.5%
$1,403 Обс.
3%
1.5-1.8%
$1,601 Обс.
<1%
1.8%+
$3,607 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q1 of 2026 compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for May 14, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a nail-biter ahead of the Office for National Statistics' first quarterly estimate for UK Q1 2026 GDP growth, due May 14, with market-implied probabilities nearly even at 50.2% for 0.6-0.9% and 44.2% for 0.9-1.2% quarter-on-quarter. February's blockbuster 0.5% monthly GDP surge—led by a 0.5% services rebound and 1.2% production uptick—lifted expectations from earlier sub-0.5% forecasts like Pantheon's 0.5%, offsetting January's tepid 0.1% print and Q4 2025's stagnation. Key differentiators include March indicators' resilience amid construction weakness, sticky 3.3% March CPI from energy shocks, and Bank Rate steady at 3.75%; a strong services close could tip toward higher bins, while slowdown risks favor the lower.
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q1 of 2026 compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for May 14, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Ринок відкрито: Feb 12, 2026, 5:33 PM ET
Обсяг
$36,338Дата завершення
May 14, 2026Ринок відкрито
Feb 12, 2026, 5:33 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q1 of 2026 compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for May 14, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a nail-biter ahead of the Office for National Statistics' first quarterly estimate for UK Q1 2026 GDP growth, due May 14, with market-implied probabilities nearly even at 50.2% for 0.6-0.9% and 44.2% for 0.9-1.2% quarter-on-quarter. February's blockbuster 0.5% monthly GDP surge—led by a 0.5% services rebound and 1.2% production uptick—lifted expectations from earlier sub-0.5% forecasts like Pantheon's 0.5%, offsetting January's tepid 0.1% print and Q4 2025's stagnation. Key differentiators include March indicators' resilience amid construction weakness, sticky 3.3% March CPI from energy shocks, and Bank Rate steady at 3.75%; a strong services close could tip toward higher bins, while slowdown risks favor the lower.
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q1 of 2026 compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for May 14, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Обсяг
$36,338Дата завершення
May 14, 2026Ринок відкрито
Feb 12, 2026, 5:33 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a nail-biter ahead of the Office for National Statistics' first quarterly estimate for UK Q1 2026 GDP growth, due May 14, with market-implied probabilities nearly even at 50.2% for 0.6-0.9% and 44.2% for 0.9-1.2% quarter-on-quarter. February's blockbuster 0.5% monthly GDP surge—led by a 0.5% services rebound and 1.2% production uptick—lifted expectations from earlier sub-0.5% forecasts like Pantheon's 0.5%, offsetting January's tepid 0.1% print and Q4 2025's stagnation. Key differentiators include March indicators' resilience amid construction weakness, sticky 3.3% March CPI from energy shocks, and Bank Rate steady at 3.75%; a strong services close could tip toward higher bins, while slowdown risks favor the lower.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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